Ukraine
American Farmer Arrested in Ukraine
North Dakota farmer Kurt Groszhans spent his Thanksgiving in a Ukrainian prison cell. He’s accused of plotting to assassinate Roman Leshchenko, the minister of agriculture. Groszhans allegedly wanted revenge against Leshchenko for embezzling $250,000 from him in 2018. Guilty or not, one would think that an American citizen trying to assassinate a foreign official would be a major news story. No stories on CNN and no indignant tweets from Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Imagine if Groszhans was arrested in Russia, Belarus, China, or Iran.
Biden Went Toe to Toe with Putin and Lost
Ukraine seems to have lost confidence in NATO. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for talks in Donbass. In exchange, Putin agreed to meet… in Moscow. Then he declared his “training exercise” over and ordered the Russian units massed at the border to withdraw. This is a huge embarrassment for both the Biden administration and NATO. Here’s my explanation for what happened.
Intrigue in Belarus and What it Means for Ukraine
The plot thickens. Russian authorities claim to have foiled a planned assassination attempt against the Belorussian president, Alexander Lukashenko. Two men were allegedly in Moscow to meet with disloyal Belorussian generals to discuss murdering Lukashenko on May 9, Victory Day. Lukashenko also alleges a kidnapping conspiracy against his family.
While significant in itself, assassinating Lukashenko correlates with the standoff simmering in Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet currently maintains total superiority and could effortlessly sink the entire Ukrainian navy within minutes of hostilities breaking out. Russia has combined arms units assembled in Crimea, along the Eastern border of Ukraine, and in Belarus, creating a three-sided “cauldron” that could potentially end a shooting war almost before it started.
Russia-Ukraine Standoff: Here’s What We Know (Live Updates)
The standoff in Eastern Ukraine continues. Here’s a rundown of events so far and what may come next. I’ll continue adding live updates to this post as the situation develops.
The Kremlin doubles down on their troop and ship movements, the White House is ineffectual as always, and Ankara gets bolder with their support of Ukraine. That last development (which includes new Turkish drones and Syrian mercenaries) is particularly good for Kiev, but probably gives them little comfort since just about every player at the table has made it clear they won’t face open warfare with Russia.