Intrigue in Belarus and What it Means for Ukraine

The plot thickens. Russian authorities claim to have foiled a planned assassination attempt against the Belorussian president, Alexander Lukashenko. Two men were allegedly in Moscow to meet with disloyal Belorussian generals to discuss murdering Lukashenko on May 9, Victory Day. Lukashenko also alleges a kidnapping conspiracy against his family.

While significant in itself, assassinating Lukashenko correlates with the standoff simmering in Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet currently maintains total superiority and could effortlessly sink the entire Ukrainian navy within minutes of hostilities breaking out. Russia has combined arms units assembled in Crimea, along the Eastern border of Ukraine, and in Belarus, creating a three-sided “cauldron” that could potentially end a shooting war almost before it started.

Zelensky faces a serious problem that, to be fair, wasn’t his doing. The U.S. and NATO brazenly provoked Russia and are now only defending Ukraine with lip service. Breathless speeches about Putin being a “killer” won’t save the Ukronazis if Russian armed forces roll across the border. Despite Zelensky’s cries for help, NATO won’t so much as reroute the Patriot missile batteries destined for Poland.

This assassination attempt against Lukashenko might have been an effort to reignite chaos in Belarus, tying up the Russian ground units, artillery, and airfields located there, and possibly much of the rest of Putin’s forces if he decides to swoop in and clean house like he did in response to the 2014 Ukrainian color revolution.

Alternatively, this might have been a false flag attack (which, to be frank, the KGB has been known to engage in before). Either way, the ball appears to be in Putin’s court. He’s been extremely cautious for the past seven years, and it might be time for a change of pace. The Eurasian Economic Union needs Ukraine, it’s called the breadbasket of Europe for a reason. That’s the reason the Nazis took Ukraine in 1941, and the European Union is trying to take it now.

The longer Putin waits to retake Ukraine from the West, the harder it will be for him to succeed. Ukraine’s military is already much larger than it was in 2014 and will only get better armed the longer Russia procrastinates.

Before Biden’s declaration of national emergency, I was skeptical that this feud would amount to much besides sanctions. Now I’m not so sure. I still believe that the Biden administration won’t do anything except bluster, but maybe this will turn into a shooting war after all. If so, I’m betting it will be a brief one.

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