Russia
The Paradox of Building a Relationship with the USA
Here’s the paradox of building a relationship with the USA. The only way to get Republicans to respect you is to be a macho tough guy – and have a strong military with nuclear weapons. Republicans are schoolyard bullies. They talk lots of trash about Russians, but have given up trying to fight them in any meaningful way. But here’s the paradox – what works on Republicans has the opposite effect on Democrats. Being a macho tough guy will actually make them hate you more. They’ll build even more drones and ships named after gay pedophiles, and want to start a war with you more than ever before.
Intrigue in Belarus and What it Means for Ukraine
The plot thickens. Russian authorities claim to have foiled a planned assassination attempt against the Belorussian president, Alexander Lukashenko. Two men were allegedly in Moscow to meet with disloyal Belorussian generals to discuss murdering Lukashenko on May 9, Victory Day. Lukashenko also alleges a kidnapping conspiracy against his family.
While significant in itself, assassinating Lukashenko correlates with the standoff simmering in Ukraine. The Black Sea Fleet currently maintains total superiority and could effortlessly sink the entire Ukrainian navy within minutes of hostilities breaking out. Russia has combined arms units assembled in Crimea, along the Eastern border of Ukraine, and in Belarus, creating a three-sided “cauldron” that could potentially end a shooting war almost before it started.
Russia-Ukraine Standoff: Here’s What We Know (Live Updates)
The standoff in Eastern Ukraine continues. Here’s a rundown of events so far and what may come next. I’ll continue adding live updates to this post as the situation develops.
The Kremlin doubles down on their troop and ship movements, the White House is ineffectual as always, and Ankara gets bolder with their support of Ukraine. That last development (which includes new Turkish drones and Syrian mercenaries) is particularly good for Kiev, but probably gives them little comfort since just about every player at the table has made it clear they won’t face open warfare with Russia.
Syrian Mercenaries Prepare for War in Ukraine
Ukrainian Special Forces are recruiting Syrian mercenaries to fight in the disputed Donbass region. The American media has mostly declined to report on this event, for reasons that I’ll leave up to readers to infer. However, The Syrian Observer reported last month that Turkish special forces asked Syrian militants to prepare for deployment to Ukraine.