Here’s a quick write-up I shared to Quora yesterday. Apparently I am the minority in this opinion and have been arguing with people about it, including Russians, funnily enough.
Russia has two major bases in Syria, Tartus and Latakia. Rebel forces have control of the surrounding areas at both of these bases. They could attack the Russian perimeter, but haven’t. I don’t think they will.
To be clear, the rebels could overpower these bases, but I doubt anyone is excited about that idea. Arabs just don’t like fights like that. Some people might be offended by me saying this, but it is true. High casualty infantry assaults just aren’t their thing. Also remember the “diversity-loging freedom fighters” don’t have a particularly huge army. The numbers I heard are around 60 thousand. Do they want to take hundreds if not thousands of casualties storming a perimeter? Maybe, but I doubt it.
Also, we need to bear in mind that the political collapse of the Assad regime took place before the first shot was fired. This wasn’t a revolution, it was a transfer of power like what happened in Afghanistan in 2021.
Lavrov has had multiple opportunities to publicly condemn Turkish support of the opposition, but didn’t. To me that is a clear signal that some sort of deal was made. Syrian embassies remain open and foreign embassies in Damascus have not been attacked, further proof that some sleight of hand happened here.
I think Assad failed at his job and was politely asked to leave. Russians will work with the new management. They might not like the new management and would have preferred a different outcome, but will work with the cards they were handed.
Think of the implications if I am right. The Biden regime will be removed from power next month and are desperate for a victory, any victory, they can claim as Biden’s “legacy.” If the Russian bases stay then regime change in Syria will mean nothing.
I do think we can definitively say no one in the US state department has a clue. They might not even have anticipated the Assad collapse at all.
Ian Kummer
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That would explain why US and Israel launched a wave of airstrikes AFTER the fall of Damascus. The war is still going. I imagine some factions of the Sunni militants are more amenable to Western demands than others. US still occupy’s Syria’s oil fields. They can use that as leverage to influence the new regime’s relations with Russia. There will always be terrorists there to justify US interference. It’s all so tiresome.
Funnily enough, I just finished a post addressing the air strikes.
https://readingjunkie.com/2024/12/09/the-centcom-airstrikes-suggest-syria-is-deteriorating/