Today I’m going to talk about the alleged Russian attack on June 27 against a Ukrainian shopping mall that Zelensky claimed was filled with more than 1,000 shoppers and employees. I’ve seen chatter from both sides about the veracity of these claims, but I’m going to specifically analyze the propaganda value and the talking points it illustrates.
First, a synopsis of what happened. From Reuters:
KREMENCHUK, Ukraine, June 27 (Reuters) – Two Russian missiles slammed into a crowded shopping centre in the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk on Monday, killing at least 16 people and wounding 59, officials said.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said more than 1,000 people were in the mall at the time of the attack, which witnesses said caused a huge fire and sent dark smoke billowing into the sky.
At least 16 people were killed and 59 injured, Ukraine’s emergency services said.
Zelensky released surveillance footage of one of the missiles impacting the “shopping center.”
What’s interesting about this footage is that there isn’t a shopping mall in the frame, it’s quite obviously an industrial facility. Which, of course, was the actual target of the strike. From the Russian MoD:
On June 27, in Kremenchug (Poltava region), Russian Aerospace Forces launched a high-precision air attack at hangars with armament and munitions delivered by USA and European countries at Kremenchug road machinery plant.
High-precision attack has resulted in the neutralisation of west-manufactured armament and munitions concentrated at the storage area for being delivered to Ukrainian group of troops in Donbass.
Detonation of the storaged munitions caused a fire in a non-functioning shopping centre next to the facilities of the plant.
Zelensky claims there were hundreds of shoppers at the mall. Russian MoD claims the mall was no longer functioning. I of course can’t prove who was lying, but the Google Reviews page is interesting. If the mall was open, why did the stream of customer reviews all abruptly end four months ago?
Here’s a good analysis from Moon of Alabama:
Yesterday I mentioned the burning shopping center in Kremenchuk, Ukraine, of which the Ukrainian president Zelensky falsely claimed that thousand people had been inside…
The shopping center was obviously as empty as its large empty parking space I mentioned yesterday. It somehow came on fire after the factory next door was bombed. Those who died were most likely soldiers or factory workers who were preparing ‘western’ weapons for delivery to the front.
Zelensky’s lie has been debunked just as the other horror fictions he has told about Russians.
As I’ve said before, I’m not a general or an expert on grand strategy or geopolitics, so I’ll just analyze this from the perspective I am qualified for, information ops. Presenting this incident as a deliberate atrocity against an innocuous shopping mall fulfills a few obvious talking points, and some not-so obvious ones.
- Downplay Ukraine’s failure to protect an important weapons cache.
- Portray the Russians as evil barbarians deliberately attacking civilian targets.
There is also an emotional appeal against negotiating with the hated enemy. Here’s a typical comment left on the YouTube video I embedded above:
The biggest tragedy of targeting civilians to force the other side to come to terms is that if they DO come to terms to stop the targeting of civilians, they will effectively have legitimized the targeting of civilians in the first place.
Now those were the obvious talking points. Here are some not so obvious ones I noticed.
George Romero’s famous 1978 zombie flick Dawn of the Dead is a satirical depiction of capitalist consumer culture, showing hordes of zombified humans mindlessly wandering into a derelict shopping mall. NATO bloc news outlets are using the same trick as Romero did, but in reverse. Essentially, journalists are embracing the lifestyle and values that Romero was making fun of.
All of the NATO propaganda about the Ukraine conflict revolves around two assumptions:
- The Ukraine is a modern civilized liberal democracy with values, beliefs, and lifestyle just like “us.”
- Russians are subhuman barbarians who ride bears and cook moose meat over an open fire.
With these talking points in mind, all propaganda of Ukrainians must be accounts (even if they have to be fictional) of “bustling” middle class shopping malls, gamers, hipster tech startups, and LGBT soy boys. Every western media consumer must think of Ukraine as synonymous with Portlandia. Meanwhile, all propaganda about Russia must be depictions of open-air markets, unpaved roads, and dilapidated shacks in the tundra. By the way, I’m writing this from a quiet suburb outside Moscow. Within 30-45 minutes, I could take a taxi or train to some of the most developed and densely populated urban areas in the country, or I could find some remote dachas with peeling paint, dirt roads, and no indoor plumbing. I could take a photo of either of these two settings and claim it represents the entirety of Russia, and both would be a lie. In reality, Russia has “nice” touristy areas and also has underdeveloped rural areas. This is true in any country.
Last week, my friend Maria took me to the local immigration office so I could register at her address (this was necessary for some red tape that I won’t get into here). While waiting in line, we encountered an immigrant woman wearing a hijab, who was delighted at my American English and went into a long sermon about how the USA is the best country in the world. Maybe she’s right, but I do wonder what this very proper woman with her head covered would think of an LGBT parade, or a drag show. This conversation reminded me, in an unfortunate way, of Ilhan Omar. It is really annoying for an immigrant to come to my country and then make a livelihood complaining about how terrible it is and other countries are better.
Anyway, the fact that so many people around the world have completely positive stereotypes of our western countries and very negative stereotypes of their own countries shows just how effective the propaganda has been over the last 70+ years.
If you think I’m exaggerating, or am underappreciative of “how good I have it,” well, think why you believe that. It’s true that Americans have more “nice things” than just about anyone else, yet we’re also the most medicated. Why?
Here’s why. A family needs food, shelter, clothes, shoes, education, and a reasonable amount of leisure time. Anything beyond that is a luxury that’s nice to have, but unnecessary. If you think a country’s worth is determined by the ability to get credit cards and consume an endless supply of electronic junk and vapid fashionable accessories, you’re not any smarter than Romero’s zombies, sorry. You might also be surprised at how good Apple is at convincing the entire world that they need to buy a new $1,300 iPhone every 6 months whether or not they can afford it.
In a previous post, I linked to a review by Isaac Asimov of 1984. Some readers thought Asimov was being unfair, not understanding Orwell’s point. While that may be so, I shared this review for a specific reason (which in fairness, I think I didn’t explain this well enough in the post). If I caused offense, sorry. And to clarify, look, I’m not saying 1984 was a bad book, or that I don’t enjoy Orwell as an author. Again, there’s a specific critique that Asimov made and I think he’s 100% right, regardless of 1984’s merits as an allegory. There’s a long-standing stereotype of the Soviet Union and modern Russia that actually contradicts itself, and George Orwell repeated it. Orwell’s “Soviet” Britain is a piss-poor third world country where everyone lives in squalid, backwards apartments and don’t even have basic amenities like a consistent supply of meat and shaving razors. And yet, every home has a magic two-way television set that always works. That perception is relevant now.
Orwell’s Russia, according to the US/UK media, is a backwards gas station and Russians have never seen a toilet, a lightbulb, or a paved road, and yet their government is simultaneously powerful and sophisticated enough to control every .ru site, wage complex cyber attacks on western infrastructure, and dump industrial quantities of missiles and artillery shells on Ukrainian LGBT parades. And yes, the Russians are always “running out” of something. Because claiming that the world’s largest food and weapons exporter is running out of food and weapons is an accusation that makes sense.
Claims of Russia “running out” of stuff started barely 36-48 hours into their intervention, and have continued non-stop to the present day. Here’s a compilation of the “running out” headlines I’ve seen floating around social media (I don’t know who the original author was, otherwise I’d credit him):
The Running Out Post.
Ukraine invasion: Russian troops stalled north of Kyiv, running out of gas and food: US official – Mar 1, 2022 – Fox News
Ukrainians are winning: Russian troops ‘demoralised’ and ‘running out of gas’ – Mar 7, 2022 – Sky News Australia
Russian forces 10 days from running out of resources: Ex US commander – Mar 15, 2022 – Hindustan Times
Russia running out of cloud data storage following Ukraine invasion – Mar 15, 2022 – XDA Developers
Russian Army Days Away From Running Out of Resources, Military Experts Say – Mar 15, 2022 – Newsweek
War could be over by May when Russia runs out of resources: Ukrainian official – Mar 15, 2022 – The Week
These simple mathematical models tell us why Russia is running out of time – Mar 16, 2022 – Medium
Russian labs run out of equipment as sanctions begin to bite – Mar 17, 2022 – Science Business
The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine – Mar 18, 2022 – Forbes
Isolated Russia is running short of US Dollars, spelling trouble for Vladimir Putin – Mar 20, 2022 – ABC Australia
ON THE BRINK Ukraine claims Russian troops face running out of food in THREE DAYS and war could be over in weeks – Mar 22, 2022 – The U.S. Sun
Russian stores running out of essential products like sugar and flour – Mar 22, 2022 – TV Malta News
Russians face running out of food and war could be over in weeks – Mar 22, 2022 – The Sun
Russian supplies running out as air attacks increase – Mar 22, 2022 – NBC News
Russia running out of precision munitions in Ukraine war — Pentagon official – Mar 24, 2022 – Reuters
Russia Running Out Of Tanks, Missiles & Fighter Jets In Ukraine; Will China Step In To Help Putin? – Apr 2, 2022 – Eurasian Times
Putin ‘running out of missiles’ because all the parts are made in Ukraine – Apr 2, 2022 – Metro UK
Russia Running Out Of Kh-55 Cruise Missiles Which Iran, China Have – Apr 5, 2022 – CRUX
UK Officials Say Russian Troops Are Running Low On Supplies – And Morale – Apr 7, 2022 – Huffington Post
The Russian army is running out of options – Apr 9, 2022 – The Spectator
Russia is running out of food, Grocery supplies from India – Apr 15, 2022 – Toisthe
Is Russia Running Out of Money? – Apr 26, 2022 – Trustnodes
Russia is running out of oil customers – May 4, 2022 – AFP
‘Running Out Of Spare Parts’: Plenty Of Pain Ahead For Russia’s Economy – May 5, 2022 – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty
Russia needs to sell oil. It’s running out of options – May 9, 2022 – CNN Business
Russia running out of weapons, can be defeated by Ukraine – UK Secretary – May 9, 2022 – Daily Trust
Russia running out of options to sell oil – May 9, 2022 – CTV News
‘Russia is running out of manpower’ and Putin may have to shrink his war aims more: national security analyst – May 16, 2022 – Raw Story
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is running out of steam, again – May 16, 2022 – Economist
Vladimir Putin is running out of options to avoid defeat in Ukraine – May 17, 2022 – Atlantic Council
Crippled Russia running out of weapons as embarrassing war ending looms ‘Shockingly inept’ – May 21, 2022 – Express UK
Russia ‘running out of ideas’ in 3-month-old war. Can Ukraine win? – May 24, 2022 – Global News
The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Tanks For The War In Ukraine. These 60-Year-Old T-62s Are Proof. – May 25, 2022 – Forbes
Russia Running Out Of Youth. Putin Signs Bill On Abolition Of Age Limit For 1t Contract With RF Armed Forces – May 28, 2022 – Ukrainian News
Exact date Putin’s forces will run out of ammunition in Ukraine, according to expert – May 30, 2022 – Mirror UK
Russia sanctions: Now the country is also running out of chips – Jun 2, 2022 – Basic Tutorials
Time is running out for Russia, German economy minister says – Jun 2, 2022 – Reuters
Russia running out of troops and equipment as ‘catastrophic’ war hits 100 days – experts – Jun 3, 2022 – Daily Star
Vladimir Putin running out of soldiers as catastrophic Ukraine invasion hits 100 days – Jun 4, 2022 – Mirror UK
Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield – Jun 10, 2022 – Washington Post
Ukraine running out of weapons as Russia batters Donbas cities – Jun 11, 2022 – Deutsche Welle (DW)
Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons – Jun 11, 2022 – UK Defence Journal
Putin war chaos: Russia resorts to ‘highly inaccurate’ weapon after running out of options – Jun 11, 2022 – Express UK
They’re going to run out’ Russia on brink of humiliation as Moscow running low on troops – Jun 13, 2022 – Express UK
Russia risks running out of weapons as Ukraine deadlock deepens – Western officials – Jun 20, 2022 – Mirror UK
Russian Army Running Out Of Ammo, But War To Continue For ‘Long Time’: Western Officials – Jun 22, 2022 – IBT
Russian Army Could Soon Run out of Weapons and Troops: Boris Johnson – Jun 22, 2022 – Newsweek
In Russia, Western planes are falling apart
Aircraft operators are running out of options after months of sanctions. – Jun 24, 2022 – Ars Technica
Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict – Jun 25, 2022 – Washington Post
Putin ‘calls up obese 20st retired general, 66,’ to lead troops in Ukraine after ‘running out of commanders’ – Jun 26, 2022 – The Sun
Over and out
Another point Asimov made about 1984 – and I do have to agree with and further emphasize – is that it isn’t necessary for a tech dictatorship to erase and censor information like Orwell claimed. For example, in one scene, the protagonist finds an old media report that contradicts today’s news, and obediently drops it into an incinerator. While I do agree that this is somewhat true with the way Google and Facebook algorithms bury inconvenient facts in people’s news feeds, the reality is much more grim. We willingly believe nonsense even though we could easily disprove it with a 5 second search on the internet.
The meme of Ukraine being a liberal middle-class LGBTQ woke democracy and Russia being a barbaric gas station is one such “fact” that could be easily disproven by literally anyone with internet access. Look up the wages of the average Russian or the average Ukrainian. Don’t take my word for it, do it yourself. Then you’ll understand why Russia’s #1 source of immigrants and citizenship/residency applications is Ukraine.
A few readers have asked me what I think of casualty reports. To be honest, I don’t actually follow the running tab on losses, and I find the benefit in doing so to be debatable at best. There are two points I have made in the past and I still stand by them:
Taking all of this into account, here is my attempt to summarize how to win a battle, or a war. Expose as much of the enemy force to attrition as possible, and for as long as possible, while minimizing your own force’s exposure to attrition, while still utilizing them 100% at key moments of the operation for the purposes they’re suitable for. (read post here)
This war is going to grind through the summer, with the Ukrainian military death toll doubling or tripling. Mind you, Ukrainians were already dying from hunger in previous years, so it’s only going to get worse. Ukraine was already the human trafficking and child pornography capital of Europe, and all of that is only going to get much worse too. (read post here)
But back to casualties, Russia has released a list of foreign militants fighting for Ukraine, and western governments have at least partially acknowledged its veracity:
According to the Russian Defense Ministry’s data, a total of 6,956 foreign citizens from 64 countries arrived in Ukraine to become pro-Kiev combatants between February 24 and June 17. Some 1,956 of those have been killed, while 1,779 have left the country, the ministry said.
That’s roughly 2/3 killed or fled the country. And with a roughly sort-of verified account of mercenary attrition, I think it’s fair to extrapolate from that what native Ukrainian losses have been like. High. Very high.
One last point about the information war, and the idea that Russia is “losing” it. That’s interesting but I still think it’s wrong. For one, to fight the information war in the West would require consuming resources that could be used on something else. Russia attempting to fight NATO propaganda on our own turf would be an asymmetric battle. Could Russia realistically beat the CIA home team on their own territory against their own people? I doubt it. And finally, “winning” a war by definition needs a goal, a quantifiable effect. What quantifiable effect would Russia be able to gain by diverting manpower and resources to propaganda in the USA and Western Europe? Yes, “winning” a war is good, but if there’s no benefit to it, then it’s better to let the enemy “win” on that front uncontested.
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! Moving forward, I’m going to make some tweaks to the blog, and also try to post more frequently. I do have some other ideas in the oven.
Ian Kummer
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Hey, Ian! Hope you like it here in Russia, even though, according to what the West thinks, it’s falling apart. Hope it doesn’t collapse under our feet.
I’m a huge fan of what both you and Maria are doing, keep up the good work!
Здравствойте Ксеня! Спасибо и я тоже лублю Россию)))
Thanks! It’s really uplifting to know that you love Russia. The idea that everyone in the collective West hates us has put a great pressure on us lately.
The English present continuous tense is just so flexible! Russia is always “running out” of everything. But no one has yet been able to write a headline saying: “Russia has run out of x…..”Maybe when someone has written such a headline we ought to pay attention!
As you say, Russia and Ukraine are kind of the same really. It is a civil war in many respects that the US / UK have cynically fomented as a battering ram against Russia. Ukrainian elites are in reality mercenaries of the US. No obvious ideological issue at stake here either, except rooting out militant anti Russian nationalism. The idea that defending Ukraine is a defence of freedom and democracy is laughable In many ways, this whole thing does resemble the for ever war between authoritarian blocs that Orwell positions in 1984. My fear for us is that increasingly that is the path that our own western political and military industrial elites are taking us down for their cynical ends.
Sorry, what I mean to say is that Russians and Ukrainians are a similar / the same people not that the regimes are the same!
You are absolutely right! Well, mostly right. Genetically we are very much alike, being Slavic and living close by. Majority of people in Russia have a crazy mix of genes, including Ukrainian, especially the ones living in the European part of the country. Some of us still have relatives living in Ukraine. Although it’s not a civil war, because we are different countries from political point of view, but this military operation hurts Russian people a lot.
> Orwell’s Russia, according to the US/UK media, is a backwards gas station and
one RT journo coined a good term for it – Rusophrenia