Hi, everyone! I am still in Moscow. I have a lot on my mind and a lot to share as I have time. Thank you all for the comments and messages – and I do read them all. I have some more announcements coming down the pipeline soon, so stay tuned.
Now, about the big news on American abortion rights. I think this is a deeply misunderstood topic so felt compelled to chime in on it. You see, in American politics both foreign and domestic, no crisis can be wasted.
So, what happened? This week the US Supreme Court has overturned its infamous 1973 ruling that our constitution guarantees a right to abortion.
Holding: The Constitution does not confer a right to abortion; Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey are overruled; the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives.
Judgment: Reversed and remanded, 6-3, in an opinion by Justice Alito on June 24, 2022. Justices Thomas and Kavanaugh filed concurring opinions. Chief Justice Roberts filed an opinion concurring in the judgment. Justices Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan filed a dissenting opinion.
Let’s put emotion and ideology aside for a moment and look at this pragmatically. First off, this isn’t a ban on abortion (a claim that I’ve seen repeated many times on social media). SCOTUS simply ruled that abortion is not a constitutional right and it’s a matter for the states to decide. Guys, really, this isn’t that extreme a position to take. It is just common sense. Regardless of an individual’s opinion on abortion, it isn’t in our bill of rights, and it’s not some fundamental civil liberty like the right to vote or free speech.
All that said, this is a serious blow to abortion rights, and more than a dozen conservative states are ready to pull the trigger and shut down abortion. How come, after 49 years, Democrats and moderate Republicans did basically nothing to ensure that abortion rights are protected? Imagine if all that energy put into invading Iraq and Drag Queen Storytime was invested toward safe abortion instead.
I also have to point out something else that should be fairly obvious but I’ve seen discussed much less than it should be. Legal or not, American women’s access to abortion is about on the same level as our healthcare system in general. Piss poor. Consider this map I found on the Guardian:
How come other developed nations, even countries much more conservative than ours (like Turkey) have found reasonable common ground on abortion and codified it, but we haven’t? Here’s the truth. We’ve been playing a 50 year game of brinksmanship. If Americans reached an agreement on abortion – what’s okay and what’s not okay – and made it law across the land, then the debate would be over and not useful anymore. It’s much more fun to keep everyone fighting and in a constant state of agitation.
Our dialogue about abortion is not sensible or healthy. Religious conservatives don’t want any kind of abortion to be legal, and their “pro-choice” opponents aren’t any better. They’re obsessed with being as offensive as possible. If you’re constantly talking about dead babies and how fetuses are not human and women should have as many abortions as possible and it’s something to be proud of, how do you think religious conservatives are going to feel about you or your ideas? Do you think they’re ever going to agree with you on anything, or be willing to compromise? Of course not.
By keeping abortion in a legal limbo, there’s a nice, manufactured conflict that both Republicans and Democrats benefit from and find useful.
Now, apply this same principle of brinksmanship to foreign policy. Specifically, apply it to Ukraine. After Maidan, there was a very clear course of action that should have been as obvious back then as it is now:
-Require Ukraine to abide by the Minsk agreements and end the civil war.
-Give Ukraine a path into the European Union
-Give Russia a guarantee, in writing, that Ukraine would never join NATO.
You shouldn’t have to be a master of statecraft to figure out that this would have had a pretty good chance of placating all involved parties, while strengthening and stabilizing Ukraine within the West’s sphere of influence. And yet, our leaders did the opposite. Actually, not the opposite, something somehow worse than that.
There were advantages to Ukraine joining NATO, and advantages to Ukraine not joining NATO. So why did we tell Russia that there was an “open door” to Ukraine’s membership, but (privately) tell Ukraine the door was closed? That negated the advantages of both paths while retaining the conflicts and risks of both. Like with the abortion debate, that’s just how our system works. We deliberately choose conflict and instability even when it’s easily avoidable.
Ian Kummer
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Well, a reasonable West is a different West, not the one we have)
Regarding that last paragraph and how unfortunate it was that the West chose a path that antagonized Russia without providing any benefit to Ukraine, this is what comes to mind: in 1939, a western diplomat, exasperated by endless German demands for various territories asked Goering: “What do you Germans want!?” “We want war”, Goering replied.
Brilliant.
I think you and the comment above about 1939 have nailed it!
The system wants conflict.
The system doesn’t just want conflict. It needs outside conflict to survive without having to change itself. The more the merrier. Cause when there’s no outside conflict, the system will start to devour itself in internal conflict – conflict of interests the various parts it’s made of.
A truism if ever I saw one
Good article.
On abortion, my understanding is that the USA is the only country in the world where this is a political issue. Other countries just ban it after twelve weeks of pregnancy, usually with an exception to save the life of the mother, and are done with it. And its done by legislation, not judicial fiat.
I don’t think the Ukraine conflict is about defending Ukraine or even parts of Ukraine joining Russia. There is something else that we are not seeing.