Happy Easter! There’s a huge battle taking off in Donbass, and NATO propaganda has begrudgingly acknowledged it. Why the sudden fit of honesty? We should be worried.
Ukraine inflicted a stunning defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s feeble attempt to capture the capital Kyiv in the war’s opening round. Now, Russia is preparing to launch a revised second phase in the east, shaping up to be the biggest tank battle in Europe since the Second World War: The Battle of Donbas.
CNN finally noticed Donbass, and that’s a trend I’ve been noticing all week.
After running into fierce resistance north and west of Kyiv — and suffering egregious casualties — Russia’s tank-heavy force gave up its hopes of capturing the city and at the end of March began pulling its troops away. Putin’s primary target, however, appears less to be the capture of geographic territory in the Donbas than it does the destruction of Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) defending in the east [emphasis mine]. Militarily, that looks like a far more attainable objective than the initial target of Kyiv. Outside of the urban capital, Ukrainian defenders won’t have the protection of buildings to shield them from Russian observation, and Putin’s troops will be able to use their mobility to their advantage.
I like how he casually mentioned that it is harder to fight the Russian in the open, rather than in “urban” areas, where defenders can hide behind the civilian population. It gets even more interesting.
Prior to the outbreak of war on February 24, Ukraine had already positioned the majority of its army in the eastern Donbas region — focusing on the line of contact between Kyiv’s troops and Russian-backed separatists defending the Luhansk and Donetsk areas.
Reports estimate there were as many as 40,000 Ukrainian troops fighting at the Donbas front when war broke out. And there has already been fierce fighting there over the past six weeks. But it now appears both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky realize the significance of winning the “Battle of Donbas” in the greater trajectory of the war.If Zelensky can hold the line in the Donbas, it will be virtually impossible for Putin to carry the war any further, and will buy Ukraine time to build an offensive force that could later drive Russia out of the country. If Putin’s forces succeed, they will capture or destroy a major percentage of all trained Ukrainian forces — and there will be little to stop Russian armor from capturing Kharkiv, Odessa or even return to Kyiv.
Of course this was all very, very obvious from the opening days of the operation, but it’s nice to see that the “experts” in the mainstream media finally caught up with us pajama bloggers six weeks later.
…if Russia can outflank Ukrainian forces in the Donbas and cut them off from resupply, it can, over time, squeeze the circle. Eventually, deprived of fuel, ammunition, food and water, the defenders, like those of Mariupol, will fall.Up to this point, the Russian and separatist troops have made incremental progress against the Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas. That balance is now at risk of being decisively tilted towards Russia.
I honestly think this is the first article I have ever seen out of the NATO bloc that even acknowledges the importance of logistics for the Ukrainian side. By now, Ukraine’s forces, especially in the Donbass pocket, must be running critically low on, well, everything.
What does worry me is why NATO propaganda is starting to acknowledge all of this. The most obvious answer that pops up in my head is that in the event of a Russian victory in Donbass, these experts can still point back at these articles as a “I told you so.”
Here’s the main problem facing NATO right now. Everything I’ve been reading over the past year indicated an expectation that Russia cannot run a protracted operation with extended supply lines for more than a few days, maybe a week at most. In my earlier post about underestimating Russia:
NATO experts sincerely believed a Russian offensive would be limited to “one or two towns” and would be kept in a small logistical footprint. I believed this too, not because I had done my own analysis of the Russian military, but because I read experts from my own side and trusted that they were competent (clearly a mistake in hindsight!).
That idea was obviously wrong and Russia can continue de-nazifying Ukraine indefinitely, whether that take a month or a year. Yet, I still see everyone rambling about how terrible Russian logistics are. It’s stupid to even say this. Just the fact that Russian soldiers still have food, bullets, and fuel is proof that they have adequate logistical support, regardless of how good or poor their battlefield performance is. Maybe it’s all propaganda but I suspect that NATO analysts chose this hill for Ukrainians to die on and refuse to update their Russia file.
Here’s another reason I think NATO is being stubborn and it isn’t working out for them. Russian forces are trying to liberate civilian infrastructure intact, and keep Ukraine’s economy operational. Russians are not conquering and occupying Ukrainian territory. They have far too few boots on the ground for that to work. Everything I’ve seen so far suggests they are mostly just clearing out nazi forces and leaving liberated towns to their own local governments. Watch this video of Russian sappers clearing mines for local farmers.
The Ukrainian defense strategy is the opposite, to deliberately destroy their own infrastructure and cause as much violence and terror as possible. Ukrainians went scorched earth, which is extremely effective, but only in the short term. Perhaps the best example of this was Zelensky emptying Kiev’s prisons and arming them with tens of thousands of guns. That’s a last-ditch scorched earth measure, which suggests he was expecting a serious Russian offensive on Kiev. While I’m sure the Russians would have liked to take Kiev within five days, they didn’t expect to. In hindsight, that is clear. If there were roughly 30,000 defenders and 60,000 attackers outside Kiev, that means Russia never had the 3-1 superiority needed to win an offensive, especially against a city. In other words, Russia feinted, and Ukraine wildly overreacted. In my post about Soviet deep operations, I quoted Col. John Boyd:
[fast transients] will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries—since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or
patterns they are competing against.
Fighting a prolonged war requires a coherent nation state with a functioning economy and military bureaucracy. They barely had any of these things before the Russians intervened and they certainly don’t now with 25% of the population is displaced and almost half of the economy lost. Are those tens of thousands of nazi skinheads armed with machineguns going to become good citizens now?
Speaking of nazis, here’s an interview with EU NPC Florence Gaub, when she declared that Russians are not European, and pretty much comes off like a nazi camp administrator.
As if that wasn’t cringy, engouh, she actually doubled down on her psychotic statements later on Twitter:
“77% of Russia is in Asia, not Europe.” Jesus, woman, that doesn’t make you sound better. Quite a few people in the thread pointed out that she’s parroting literal nazi propaganda from World War II:
Embarrassing German bots aside, remember that the main reason this war is happening in Ukraine is because the USA needs cannon fodder. This was never about Ukraine. It was always a confrontation between Russia and the USA. Ukraine is the “soft underbelly” that western strategists love so much. The USA had 3 objectives and so far has succeeded in all of them.
1) Use Ukrainians as cannon fodder
2) Tie up Russia in a proxy war
3) Isolate and cripple Europe
Back in January, I predicted that a serious escalation in Ukraine could cause big problems for the EU, Germany and France specifically.
Ukraine is not a member of the EU, but it is still in Europe. One would think that the EU would be the biggest decision-maker and mediator in this feud, but they’re not. It’s a conversation happening between Washington and Moscow, and everyone else is irrelevant. At least Ukraine gets to be a pawn in the great game, the EU doesn’t even get to be a piece on the board. They are the board that everyone else tramples on.
Hawkish outlets like the Financial Times moan that the EU isn’t being assertive enough with Russia. That might be true and the opposite is also true. If Ukraine is conquered, or simply collapses and becomes a failed state, that will mean a flood of refugees, criminals, and weapons flooding into the EU. If economic warfare escalates between the USA and Russia, the EU will be hit harder than anyone else. The USA and Russia are both resource-independent enough to withstand a mutual siege. The EU is not. If Russia cuts off the gas, Germans will be warming their apartments with candles. While EU members can’t seem to agree on anything, everyone does seem to agree that the EU is irrelevant. I have to ask how much of a beating the EU can handle. It’s a great racket for German bankers, but it’s not clear why anyone else should stay on board if the EU can’t promise even basic security.
As of January, France has assumed the presidency of the EU (It rotates every six months). President Emmanuel Macron is a diehard supporter of the EU and this is his time to shine, but it might also be his time to fail miserably, especially since he’s facing a tough election this year as it is. I’m going deep into speculation territory now, but if the Ukraine feud goes badly and there’s a severe economic fallout from it, would that be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and causes a Frexit? I don’t think there’s any way to know for sure unless it happens. But if it does happen, I have a hard time imagining the adventure of European brotherhood could survive on the shoulders of Germany alone.
What I don’t quite understand why Europe is so eagerly embracing economic and political castration. They need Russian gas, and they need nuclear plants. Now they’re about to have neither. It’s laughable to think Europe will be able to grow on the world stage while dependent on “green” windmills and American LNG. It’s not even a question of supply, it’s price. In my post about the downfall of Europe:
I can only guess, but I think I’m pretty close to the truth. Russia and Europe are natural economic and security partners. Yes, buying Russian oil and especially gas improves European security and it’s silly to claim it doesn’t. Transporting energy in pipelines is the most defensible and logistically sound method. What’s the alternative? Shipping containers of gas in little boats across the Atlantic? And adults say this with a straight face.
In a sane world, Europeans would buy Russian energy and resources, and in turn, invest in the Russian economy. They’d become mutually dependent on each other, making wars impossible and diplomacy the only solution to disagreements. If we’re really so concerned about “Russian aggression” wouldn’t it have made much more sense to give Russia so much economic investment, no Russian leader could ever risk giving it up? But of course that was never the plan, was it?
Europe and Russia should have done this a hundred years ago and the only reason they haven’t is because of cynical and unscrupulous manipulation by Anglo Saxons. Think of how large and powerful an alliance would be between continental Europe and Russia. It would be more powerful than the Anglo-Saxon alliance between the USA and the UK, which is why it can’t ever be allowed to happen.
Now their fate is all but sealed. In all likelihood, Europe will never be world powers again. They will forever be a collection of impoverished, irrelevant vassal states, literally gas stations for the American military. But why are they voluntarily accepting this humiliation? Who knows. Maybe the opportunity to sexually exploit Ukrainian girls (and boys) is enough of a bribe.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Nazis are globalists who don’t have their countries’ best interests at heart. They serve an external power and actively work against their own nations and people.
As for the UK, they’re getting a taste from the master’s table. That “democratic” decision to Brexit? More likely it was orders from Washington. Remember, much of the mainland’s gold reserves still sit in London vaults. If a European leader has second thoughts about kneeling to Uncle Sam, servant bankers in London can give his, uh, economics, a quick squeeze to remind him who he belongs to.
Featured Image Source: Donetsk News Agency
Ian Kummer
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whenever i see people wondering why the EU is destroying itself, my first two thoughts are:
1. misery loves company and as such the EU has always been a suicide pact.
and
2. the EU, like all western power structures, is run by delusional psychopaths who are both over educated at ivy league indoctrination centers (or “universities”) and also cloistered idiots.
they live in their own “reality”; this explains their surprise at the advent of brexit and MAGA and – just guessing – their belief that the ukraine operation would actually lead to “regime change” in russia.
many of them remember the 90s fondly as a time when they could rape and pillage russia and screw little cat-eyed slavic kids ’til the cows came home. as with all anti-russia activity this is so very retro. they picture it as an oil field filled with bears and putin sitting on a throne made of skulls instead of a cunning nation with a rich history of resisitance that can hand europe its collective ass without breaking a sweat.
as for your brexit theory, just ask venezuela if the UK gives a damn who the gold belongs to. just as new york is manhattan surrounded by a bunch of hicks, england is just london surrounded by chav-infested villages. it was always its own entity whether it was in the EU or not.
Agree with this take.
For Europe (including the U.K. in my view) this conflict is lose lose.
Agree too that in the short term, the US Neo Cons are achieving their objectives, given their almost pathological dislike of Russia. I struggle though with how any of this is in the long term interests of the American people. Not that the Neo Cons care about that, of course.
As John Mearsheimer notes, the prime long term strategic challenger to American hegemony is China. This dissipates focus in addressing the rise of China and drives Russia into China’s embrace.
When future historians look back on the 1990 to circa 2040 half century after the Cold War they will wonder why America expended so much energy and treasure on dealing firstly with Middle Eastern states that were no threat to her, and then on Russia that was not either, whilst China rose to eclipse her.
Because the American gov was too top – heavy with Ashkenazi influence ; Neocons.
One billion poor cheap workers. What could go wrong?
Personally I am not in doubt that China and Russia are the future, because they have their universal vision adapted to the way the universe function, and hopefully they can bring Africa and Latin America on the train who still have qualities and are less demoralised.
But what happen in the long term to Gay7?
China is a special case due to their language, spirit, ancient history and special 1,4 billion culture. Russia too has its own language, spirit and culture. None of them fits into the Gay7’s multi-culti mess of destroyed languages.
Europe was trying to set up a controlled silver belt to East-Europe. Russia/China may try to set a gold belt toward Europe to avoid the depravity and misery swimming over.
Have to wonder how long European current governments will last once they experience the inflation, recession and serious energy shortages. It is already pretty much a given that the Democrats are toast and Republicans will control the Senate and House in November of course foreign policy will probably not change given our history since end of WW2.
The German government will last. Even if the Scholz government is kicked out of office, the majority of its members will be part of the next government as well. No policy changes to be expected. And certainly no changes for the better.
Europe is rotten to the core. Stay behind networks, trojan horses and agents are fully incorporated into all important State institutions in Europe.
Small satelite Pentagons are established in Italy and Spain and most European countries taking orders only from big Pentagon.
There is no way and no hope of any changes for Europe whatsoever the next few decades, unless Russia cut it all up to Lisbon which is unrealistic.
Gaub should shut her pretty gob. Idiot…no wonder she rose in politics; she is dumb.
A belated happy Easter to you and I like your latest post.
Excellent article. Removes the vale.
Look at my hands. Has anyone else noticed the media obsessed wannabes all talk with their hands The craze has got so silly they have them up near the mouth. The semi religious from the heat pose. It’s all fake.
Afghanistan 20 years a failure 2 day mass retreat. Russia dismantled Nazi land in the last six weeks. Even with total support from the US & Europe……it’s not a good look. They have managed to dislodge the Dollar from a stable orbit at the same time as looking militarily and sanction losers.
All the silly women in high places with their accessories from lipstick to riding in tanks to fur hats/coats on a warm sunny day.
It’s all show, all pretend and soon it’s going to be let’s all forget…..quote, “Does really matter.”
War against terror? Covid 19 terror?……all gone..Russia bad, bad to the bone.
Are you not amused?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1513942397801086980
Ian, I hope this link works. I tested it and it ran for me. This is the Russian response.