Today the Biden administration is reportedly in the final stages of deciding a largescale troop deployment to the Baltic states. Here’s my take on the situation, and the winners and losers.
8,500 troops already stationed in Europe have been placed on high alert, and may send another 50,000 might be sent eastward. Here’s a map from the Daily Mail:
If Biden wants to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, the most sensible place to deploy troops would be, well, Ukraine. Soldiers in Ukraine would a meaningful gesture with real consequences. Russia couldn’t occupy Ukraine without firing on Americans. But of course Biden didn’t do that because he doesn’t actually want war with Russia. In a previous post, I said that the American plan appears to leave Ukraine a broken quagmire for Russia to clean up, now I’m even more certain. The State Department is even taking the step of evacuating the embassy, as if begging for a Russian invasion free from any consequences.
But if this troop deployment won’t actually do anything to stop Putin from trolling Kiyv, why do it? There is still a point to this idea and it does have consequences. To explain better, here’s a list of winners and losers:
The Winners
Joe Biden
Now Joe Biden can be a big tough war president, but without actually having a war. Americans are distracted, however briefly, from inflation, soaring violent crime rates, and failed campaign promises. Like almost everything else, this is a wonderful opportunity for grift too. Rotating troops in and out of Eastern Europe is enough of a justification for America’s enormous defense budget even in the face of a weak economy and a mind-numbing national debt.
Russia
The Russian media has reported that the Ukrainian army is mobilizing for a large offensive into Donbass, and this is what they’re planning to do with all the new weapons and munitions NATO has been sending them. This might be fake news, but President Volodymir Zelensky himself announced the beginning of “offensive actions.” Anyway, it is probably reassuring for Russians to know that Biden won’t respond to actions against Ukraine with anything beyond sanctions. Offensive or no offensive, people are dying in Donbass almost daily, so an increased provocation might not even be necessary to justify taking the velvet gloves off.
Regarding the obvious question of how both Biden and Russia can both win. The answer is Afghanistan. Aside from a fleeting moment of media outrage, the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan didn’t harm Biden’s approval ratings significantly (they’re still higher than Trump’s) and everyone has long since moved on to other topics to be upset about. Losing Ukraine would probably be even more inconsequential. Only one in six Americans can find Ukraine on a map.
The United Kingdom
In a recent interview with BBC, President Alexander Lukashenka of Belarus claimed that the UK left the EU to form a closer alliance with the USA. Presumably he was referring to the Anglo treehouse AUKUS. Still, I thought that was a bit of a stretch, but recent events have shown he may be right, and probably knows some things that we don’t in the peanut gallery.
The UK has been sending military supplies to Ukraine, which isn’t noteworthy in of itself, except Germany has refused to send weapons. Furthermore, they’ve (so far) prevented even the owners of German weapons like Estonia from supplying Ukraine. This is apparently enough of a disagreement for the British military transports to avoid German airspace en route to Ukraine, rather than request permission to pass through. Whatever economic discomfort Brexit caused, it paid off in the long run. I suspect this is the start of a trend. The UK will ignore the wishes of the EU whenever they contradict instructions from Washington.
Which brings me to the biggest loser in this situation.
The Losers:
The European Union
Ukraine is not a member of the EU, but it is still in Europe. One would think that the EU would be the biggest decision-maker and mediator in this feud, but they’re not. It’s a conversation happening between Washington and Moscow, and everyone else is irrelevant. At least Ukraine gets to be a pawn in the great game, the EU doesn’t even get to be a piece on the board. They are the board that everyone else tramples on.
Hawkish outlets like the Financial Times moan that the EU isn’t being assertive enough with Russia. That might be true and the opposite is also true. If Ukraine is conquered, or simply collapses and becomes a failed state, that will mean a flood of refugees, criminals, and weapons flooding into the EU. If economic warfare escalates between the USA and Russia, the EU will be hit harder than anyone else. The USA and Russia are both resource-independent enough to withstand a mutual siege. The EU is not. If Russia cuts off the gas, Germans will be warming their apartments with candles. While EU members can’t seem to agree on anything, everyone does seem to agree that the EU is irrelevant. I have to ask how much of a beating the EU can handle. It’s a great racket for German bankers, but it’s not clear why anyone else should stay on board if the EU can’t promise even basic security.
France
As of January, France has assumed the presidency of the EU (It rotates every six months). President Emmanuel Macron is a diehard supporter of the EU and this is his time to shine, but it might also be his time to fail miserably, especially since he’s facing a tough election this year as it is. I’m going deep into speculation territory now, but if the Ukraine feud goes badly and there’s a severe economic fallout from it, would that be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and causes a Frexit? I don’t think there’s any way to know for sure unless it happens. But if it does happen, I have a hard time imagining the adventure of European brotherhood could survive on the shoulders of Germany alone.
Image source: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense
Ian Kummer
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