The rewriting of history continues. Afghanistan is the latest case of “the USA could have easily won but we just chose not to.” Is that really true though?
In my first deployment there in 2009 to Camp Bastion there were still largescale combat operations and had enthusiastic participation by most ISAF members. I would not however paint this as some great victory over the Taliban as you seem to think happened. It was quite obvious even at the time that they still had full control over the Pashtun-speaking regions and populations.
Another important “milestone” from this period was the USA’s loud proclamation of “winning” the counter-drug operation, pointing to the collapse in poppy production as proof. What actually happened, and was admitted in later reports on the topic, was that poppy production had exploded so much it collapsed the market. So farmers stopped producing new crops and stored the existing dry poppy to wait until the prices went up again.
It was also admitted that the fertilizer provided for free for alternative crops was instead used to make IEDs.
After I had left, most of the small outposts were shut down because they were too difficult to defend without sustaining casualties. The most famous (and likely most politically significant) attack was on Combat Outpost Keating. Which was later dramatized in a film with Orlando Bloom, and written in such a way to avoid paying the actual soldiers a penny in royalties, which was honestly a pretty good analogy for the war.
I went again in 2011, and was there when Obama wacked Osama, or at least claimed he did. And the Taliban launched largescale simultaneous attacks throughout the country. While they inflicted fairly insignificant damage, this showed their effectiveness and control over portions of Afghanistan had not been dented in any significant way. Nevertheless, Obama began his drawdown of forces and his reason why was obvious. Continuing to maintain such a footprint in Afghanistan would sustain politically unacceptable casualties.
Meanwhile, Americans and Brits were virtually the only ISAF contingents still going on combat patrols. Everyone else for the most part was staying on the FOBs to avoid losses.
About a year later, they carried out the famous 2012 attack on Camp Bastion while Prince Harry was there, causing the single largest loss of aircraft since Vietnam. Harry happening to be there mattered very little, what was much more significant was that Bastion was considered extremely well defended and impervious to attack.
I came over for a final visit, this time just for a week, in 2016. By this point the Taliban was engaged in largescale operations against the ANSF and inflicting thousands of casualties. The poppy industry was back in full swing and the boys there outright told me that the Taliban and ISAF were largely ignoring each other. The remaining ISAF forces, mostly just aviation and support roles, were staying on the FOBs that were difficult to attack, meanwhile the Afghan Army and police was getting shredded.
By the time Trump entered office, the ANSF had suffered in the neighborhood of 80–90 thousand deaths and many more injured, and the Taliban was just as strong as ever. The war was so obviously lost at this point I don’t think it actually mattered who was president.
So you’re free to reimagine this as a victory if that makes you feel better, but in the end the Taliban never lost control and the US-led coalition gave up.
Ian Kummer
Support my work by making a contribution through Boosty
All text in Reading Junkie posts are free to share or republish without permission, and I highly encourage my fellow bloggers to do so. Please be courteous and link back to the original.
I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.
Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).