The ceasefire with Iran expires on April 21. But does Trump have the stomach for more war?
My earlier opinion still stands: Team Trump wants an offramp, but is too inept to manage it. They had the same exact problem with the Russia talks. The US side has a bunch of demands, but doesn’t recognize that the other side also has a say, and probably won’t agree with anything unless their own requirements are met. That’s how Biden’s war in Ukraine became Trump’s war, and why it is unlikely that there will be a favorable diplomatic resolution to the Iran war. But Iran has the cards.
There’s this idea that the ceasefire is a fake to give the US and Israel time to rearm. That might be true, but I don’t see how much good it would. Their problems are deeper than not having enough munitions in the region, they just don’t have enough munitions period. And that’s a problem that takes years to fix, not days.
Tune in to my podcast with Billy Bob on April 14, 7 p.m. Moscow time, to hear the latest on Trump’s “Special Combat Operation” in Iran. The show starts tonight at 7 p.m. and can be viewed below. You can also subscribe to my YouTube channel for notifications of future videos and interviews. Blowback: Exposing Imperial Decline can be followed here. The stream will also go to Billy Bob’s Facebook page, which you can follow here.
Unlikely. They're just buying time to the Bush to get there as it has to go around Africa
Randolorian, not impossible, but Trump and co. seem to think economic pressure will work.
This reminds me of 2020, in the sense that events have gotten so strange, that you have to go hard conspiracy theorist to begin to make sense of them. I turn to Miles Mathis for this sort of thing, and on April 11th he posted an essay that didn't disappoint:“Before we get started, I want to ask a question about the “Iran War”. Tell me how this makes sense: we threaten Iran for weeks with total destruction if they don’t open the Strait of Hormuz, so they do, and the next day we close it ourselves, threatening them with total destruction if they try to break our blockade. This makes the phony wargames in Orwell’s 1984 look rational in comparison.“Do you think that maybe, just maybe, we need the Strait to appear to be closed, to explain the manufactured rise in prices of gas, fertilizer, food, etc.?”https://mileswmathis.com/belloc.pdf
I am about a third of the way through the podcast, and where I will probably disagree with all three of you is that I am pretty sure this is a Flower War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flower_war). There is no master imperial geopolitical strategy behind this.