Iran Proved the World Order Can Be Changed. But Will China Allow It?

Iran went toe-to-toe against the USA and won, but with China as a friend, who needs enemies?

The USA and Iran both agreed too a ceasefire without serious concessions, which from a Clausewitzian perspective, is unusual. Typically one side or the other has a clear advantage, and it isn’t sensible to stop fighting unless their adversary is willing to give up enough up front so that reengaging hostilities is difficult. But now we have a possible answer. A recent article in The Wall Street Journal claims that China pressured Iran to accept a ceasefire.

“The prevailing mindset in Beijing is that China is not sticking its neck out for anybody,” said Danny Russel, a former senior U.S. diplomat now with the Asia Society Policy Institute. “China will only engage in mediation that allows it to claim credit without incurring any real risk or cost.”

Being able to take credit for other people’s successes without having to do anything seems to be China’s grand strategy.

In my opinion, China is playing a dangerous game that could eventually leave it without allies, and without any further concessions to placate the USA.

However, there is reason to be optimistic. UK chancellor Rachel Reeves lashed out at Trump for his poorly-conceived war against Iran,

Reeves said: “This is a war that we did not start. It was a war that we did not want. I feel very frustrated and angry that the US went into this war without a clear exit plan, without a clear idea of what they were trying to achieve. And as a result the strait of Hormuz is now blocked.”

She is being much too favorable to the US, which is the clear loser so far. An unprovoked sneak attack that suffers substantial losses, and fails to achieve any of its objectives while also galvanizing the targeted country is not “lack of an exit plan,” it’s just losing, pure and simple. But the poor Euros cannot fathom a world in which the USA isn’t the top dog that can easily win any conflict with anyone. Their continuing stubborness to recognize that they can’t hide behind the American skirt forever will probably go poorly for them. It’s already going poorly. Economic warfare with Iran hurts them more than the USA, and they’re unwilling to de-orbit themselves from the American military.

I still have a fair degree of confidence that the “hot phase” of the US-Iran conflict is over and they’re not in a hurry to start it again.

Ian Kummer

I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.

Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).

---