Trump at least for now seems to have surrendered to Iran, and this might be the result of a soft palace coup against the zionist lobby.
For years I have argued that Iran would be impossible to defeat without a ground invasion, and that would require a draft. I have also said that Trump might attempt a ground operation that’s too small to succeed rather than crawl to congress to beg for an army. That may be what happened over Easter weekend.
The timeline of a large loss of aircraft (which the Pentagon swears did not result in any fatalities), bombastic threats by Trump to end a civilization, then a tentative agreement to Iran’s ten-point plan suggests a battlefield disaster more serious than what was publicly admitted (note that I recently floated the idea that Iran could be Trump’s Gallipoli). If the US doesn’t change its mind and Iran does not back down, this would amount to a surrender. In my previous post I said the following:
The war has become existential for both Iran and the US. It wasn’t always an existential crisis, and didn’t need to become one, but now it is. If the US fails to utterly defeat Iran, that is the end of the empire. No one will ever take American threats seriously again, the game is over. The Petrodollar will collapse, and the US has no social cohesion, every city will turn into a bloodbath of total lawlessness. Even humanitarian aid to US cities will be impossible, the trucks and trains would just be robbed before they even arrive at the distribution points.
But I see no off ramp that isn’t humiliating, this conflict can only lead to destruction, it’s only a question of how much destruction.
Perhaps the most significant aspect of this ceasefire, which I noticed that almost everyone gets wrong, is that it is only between the US and Iran, with Israel shut out in the cold and not even notified that such an agreement was being seriously considered. Freelance writer Shaiel Ben-Ephraim reports:
I talked to a few sources in Israel and the frustration with the ceasefire is deep. The are incredibly unhappy there, whether in the army or the government:
1) An Israeli official described the announcement as a “complete surprise,” claiming the White House provided a last-minute notification rather than engaging in a joint strategic rollout.
2) Just 24 hours prior, senior Israeli officials were publicly telling reporters they did not expect any ceasefire in the near future. They were blindsided.
3) I was told that there was an operation to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, which Netanyahu was heavily invested in, which he had tried to convince Trump to wait for.
4) Security officials have leaked concerns that the 14-day pause provides a critical “breather” for Iran to hide or further bury its uranium stockpiles that were recently exposed by Israeli strikes.
5) Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are already threatening that they will collapse the government if the two-week pause transitions into a permanent arrangement without the full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
6) While Tel Aviv saw jubilant celebrations from hostage families, residents in the Upper Galilee view the pause as a security failure that leaves them under the threat of Hezbollah. In the north they are deeply concerned that they will never be safe again.
7) Some in the Mossad still believe that Israel was on the verge of toppling the Islamic Republic. Those reports were shown to the Trump administration which ignored them. Israeli intelligence is certain that while strikes damaged the Natanz and Minzadehei facilities, the core material was not neutralized.
All this to say, there is a sense of coitus interruptus in Israeli security circles. They had more targets they wanted to pursue and are now concerned that Trump will force them to stop in Lebanon. Having said that, the plan is now to escalate in Lebanon and Gaza in order to have some achievements. It is difficult for the security establishment to deal with the fact that Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC are all still in charge after all this time and all this effort. Many are blaming Netanyahu for this outcome.
This suggests that Israel may not be able to derail this peace process because it didn’t include them to begin with. Note that previously I was adamant that the US government would not sit idle while Israel bombed to smithereens. Yet that seems to be the intent. While it is too early to say for sure if the ceasefire will hold, and what exactly that means on the ground, Iran launched their hundredth wave of strikes against Israel.
When talked of a civilization ending, he apparently was referring to his own. If Iran comes out of this with a clear victory, the empire is done. Russia, China and everyone else facing a US proxy can and should just steamroll them.
EDIT: I wrote an important update, which you can read here:
Ian Kummer
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The New York Times published a really long article about Trump's decision to attack Iran:https://archive.fo/eGBMDIt has to be stressed that articles like this appear for a reason, and the stories they tell are not necessarily what happened. The article seems to be an exercise putting as much of the blame solely on Trump as possible. He is presented as approving the Israeli plan for the attack, against the admittedly understated warnings from just about all of his advisors.The article stresses that attendance of the meetings was left to only a few officials, with the Vice President apparently sent to Azerbaijan so he couldn't attend the first one, so presumably one of the attendees of the February 11th meeting told the New York Times the story.The plan was to use the attack on Iran as cover for an internal coup organized by Israeli intelligence. This is notable, since I think the whole point of the Ukraine was was supposed to be an internal coup in Russia. I think governments are starting to learn how to counter this.Apparently no one objected that Iran has been quiet, and there is no reason why the United States would want regime change in Iran, a point the Duran guys have repeatedly made. No one also objected to American officials listening to a supposedly foreign government over which country the United States should go to war with. My suspicion was that the decision was actually made at another, even more secret meeting, not attended by whoever leaked to the Times.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.
Edward S., in general, I agree with the assertion that JD Vance was likely against attacking Iran, because there was literally no good reason for it.