Can the USA invade Iran and win? Let’s look at the numbers (they’re not good). There are also the questions of time and planning, and those aspects don’t look good either.
Bush’s coalition had 950 thousand troops, including around 250 thousand from partners, 3,000 tanks, 2,700 aircraft, and six carrier groups. Around 500 tomahawks fired. The empire was at the absolute peak of its power, with a huge military intended for war against the Soviet Union and an equally impressive coalition of both regional and global allies.
Bush II’s coalition had just 300 thousand troops, and an additional 50 thousand from the UK, the only partner to provide significant numbers, around 900 tanks, and just under 900 aircraft. Like in 1991 there were 6 carrier groups, and 700 tomahawks fired. Already, just 12 years after Desert Storm, the empire was a shadow of its former self, but still powerful, especially in the context of a world that was devoid of serious enemies.
There are currently two carrier groups and around 50,000 American ground personnel in the Middle East, and at this point we can only speculate on how large a force Trump could muster against Iran, which in of itself is a problem, because both the previous wars took about five months of mobilization and preparation. There is no sign that Trump’s Department of War had even begun planning, let alone actually executing, such a deployment before firing the first shots. They could start that five month clock now, but we have to assume that Iran won’t sit there and let them assemble an invasion without interference.
On paper, ,the USA has a large military of 1.3 million active personnel, 430 thousand National Guard and more than 700 thousand reservists in total. How many of these could be brought together in one place to invade Iran? We can’t be sure but the previous two cited wars offer some hints about the force composition. Around a third, 228 thousand, of the American forces in Desert Storm were National Guard and Reserves. In the 2003 invasion, that number was more than 148 thousand, or approximately half of the total force.
The inactive ready reserve (IRR), people still in their eight year service obligation (for example, if you serve for four years, there are four more years you might be called up to return to service), has shrunk from its surge-years high to around 300 thousand.
Aside from numbers, one question I have not seen discussed anywhere is how the US military’s post-GWOT modernization was impacted by aid to Ukraine. Do the soldiers have the newest optics, FPV drones and other high-tech toys they were supposed to get? Did Ukraine disrupt this process? Accelerate it? Impossible to say with the information I was able to find.
I do think a draft would be necessary, not for the initial invasion force, but for replacements. But training civilians from scratch, as opposed to pulling them from the IRR, takes months. And unlike countries with mandatory military service, the US really would be training draftees from scratch. When Russia mobilizes men, at least they already know which end of the rifle to hold.
However, at the end of the day, I am skeptical that a serious ground operation is even possible. Which leaves what? Nukes? There is an idea that no nuclear power will accept serious military defeat without resorting to pushing the red button, and now there are potentially about to be two nuclear powers facing serious defeat. US hegemony would not survive a clear loss against a supposedly weaker regional non-nuclear power, and Israel might not survive at all. What to do?
Ian Kummer
I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.
Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).
