All the sentiment of “freezing” the conflict in Ukraine flies in the face of conventional wisdom and is popular now only because western countries want to perpetuate the war in Ukraine. From Carl von Clauswitz’s famous book On War:
THERE IS ONLY ONE CAUSE WHICH CAN SUSPEND THE ACTION, AND THIS SEEMS TO BE ONLY POSSIBLE ON ONE SIDE IN ANY CASE.
If two parties have armed themselves for strife, then a feeling of animosity must have moved them to it; as long now as they continue armed, that is, do not come to terms of peace, this feeling must exist; and it can only be brought to a standstill by either side by one single motive alone, which is, THAT HE WAITS FOR A MORE FAVOURABLE MOMENT FOR ACTION. Now, at first sight, it appears that this motive can never exist except on one side, because it, eo ipso, must be prejudicial to the other. If the one has an interest in acting, then the other must have an interest in waiting.
A complete equilibrium of forces can never produce a suspension of action, for during this suspension he who has the positive object (that is, the assailant) must continue progressing; for if we should imagine an equilibrium in this way, that he who has the positive object, therefore the strongest motive, can at the same time only command the lesser means, so that the equation is made up by the product of the motive and the power, then we must say, if no alteration in this condition of equilibrium is to be expected, the two parties must make peace; but if an alteration is to be expected, then it can only be favourable to one side, and therefore the other has a manifest interest to act without delay. We see that the conception of an equilibrium cannot explain a suspension of arms, but that it ends in the question of the EXPECTATION OF A MORE FAVOURABLE MOMENT.
Let us suppose, therefore, that one of two States has a positive object, as, for instance, the conquest of one of the enemy’s provinces—which is to be utilised in the settlement of peace. After this conquest, his political object is accomplished, the necessity for action ceases, and for him a pause ensues. If the adversary is also contented with this solution, he will make peace; if not, he must act. Now, if we suppose that in four weeks he will be in a better condition to act, then he has sufficient grounds for putting off the time of action.
But from that moment the logical course for the enemy appears to be to act that he may not give the conquered party THE DESIRED time. Of course, in this mode of reasoning a complete insight into the state of circumstances on both sides is supposed.
So war in Ukraine will end after the stronger party has achieved the objectives that compelled them to go to war in the first place and the weaker party has realized that it is better to give up a province or two rather than face more destruction. At that point the conflict ends for good.
But as described by Clauswitz, the weaker party might just be playing for time and the stronger party will only accept this if they’re suckers. Russians were suckers in 2014 when they accepted western assurances and didn’t just annex all of Ukraine while it effectively did not have a military.
If there is no possibility for a lasting peace, then the stronger party will just keep fighting until the weaker party has been completely defeated.
NATO trolls fancy themselves stronger than Russia, so often argue that this will end after Russia is broken up and partioned. True, maybe a Ukrainian army with NATO arms and money can defeat Russia. The problem with this reasoning is that Russia has nukes, so obviously would nuke NATO rather than just quietly be destroyed.
So the only two probable outcomes are either Ukraine is defeated, or every European descended civilization on earth is obliterated. Arguments that the conflict can be “frozen” are just nonsense.
Ian Kummer
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Agree
All arguments about frozen conflicts and stalemates are disingenuous and serve only some deceitful narrative pitch.
It is also important to mind the larger canvas beyond Ukraine on which this is being projected:
–The struggle between NATO/US and Russia and some viable security architecture
–The struggle to retain global Western hegemony
–The struggle to retain (dis)information dominance
–The struggle to retain legitimacy for Western regimes and the EU
Ignore the trolls. You are a decent guy, doing your best. May God bless you!
As we have seen in this war, the Western capitalist world is intellectually degrading.
The system is such that only the loud voices of the politicians, who are like megaphones of the neocons and financial propaganda capital, are seen and heard by the people. Because of this, all the ground is about to be covered with idiots.
Last year and the year before, the neocon think tank ISW,and country’s own idiot TV station, said, “Russia’s missile manufacturing capability is gone. Therefore, Russia’s missiles are running out.” ” The Ukrainian military at the beginning of the war was inefficient because it was commanded by personnel with a Soviet-style training philosophy. The situation would improve if NATO-style educated personnel, who are now training in the West, were deployed.”
This is something that cannot be evaluated as anything other than “symbolic speech of idiocity of western world today”.
Observatively, Russian missiles and drones continue to rain down to this day, and the only thing the NATO-trained troops have shown us is the abomination of suicidal suicide attacks and death by tanks in a defensive battle that the Russians have run over.
In a world where only idiots are left in the mainstream media, individual people like this blog are barely doing anything intelligent.
How did our world come to be in such a miserable state?