On Friday I went on Billy Bob’s show again. Here’s a summary of my basic points as I remember them:
-The Ukrainian counter-offensive chewed up their stockpiles to such an extent they’re back to living hand-to-mouth with ammunition. They’re particularly hurting for vehicles, and that probably can’t be resolved without another US aid package. I have long expected the war to last until summer 2025, but that won’t happen unless an aid package is approved. Republicans are using Ukraine as a bargaining chip, and Biden won’t make concessions on domestic immigration issues, which might turn out to be an insurmountable problem. But as of right now, I expect a new aid package to be passed in some form. This is an artillery war, so lacking sufficient ammunition for counter-battery operations just turns everybody into a target. Worse still, a stationary target due to the widespread lack of transportation.
I find the gossip about Transnistria to be silly. Ukrainians haven’t attempted to do anything there, so apparently Transnistria is off limits. There isn’t a plausible motive for Russia to change that right now.
Regarding the idea of taking more territory, like Odessa, I think the Russian plan is to continue using the carrot/stick method, the carrot being what territory they have left. If Russia takes so much territory that a post-war Ukraine couldn’t even function as a sovereign state, that’s a serious escalation from what’s been done so far though not impossible.
If Russia opens a new front, Ukraine likely doesn’t have the forces to stop it, but this might be unnecessary.
“Passing the torch” to the wife Yulia Navalnaya is a farce, and indicates that Navalny didn’t have a real organization, it’s just a consumer brand.
I discussed my observations about Ksenia Karelina’s arrest, pretty much verbatim from my post about her.
Gaza came up, as usual I mentioned that Biden has potential leverage with Israel, but for whatever reason he is unwilling or unable to use it and this is hurting him in the runup to the 2024 election. But “Winning the PR war” won’t help Gaza.
You can watch the full podcast here:
Ian Kummer
Support my work by making a contribution through Boosty
All text in Reading Junkie posts are free to share or republish without permission, and I highly encourage my fellow bloggers to do so. Please be courteous and link back to the original.
I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.
Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).