Evgeny Prigozhin, owner and head of Wagner Group, is apparently attempting a coup, and Putin has formally accused him of such. Let’s try to look at the facts rationally.
As of right now, the global conflict between Russia and the New World Order, and centered on Ukraine, can be accurately described as a stalemate. The frontline hasn’t changed dramatically for many months, and the advantage of static defenses supported by artillery seems to be enough to prevent a dramatic offensive by either side from succeeding without incurring massive losses. In my opinion, the only thing that could change this situation is if one side introduces a true “game changer” that the opposing side is unable to adequately encounter, or, one side suffers a Black Swan event, a catastrophe that nobody was able to predict that is sufficient in scale to swing the balance of power.
Grinding stalemate benefits Russia, because they’re fighting in their own backyard while the NWO has to contend with massive supply lines. UK and EU shipments have to cross a continent, and American shipments have to cross an ocean and a continent. Even Ukraine’s internal supply lines are much longer than what Russia has to deal with. Prolonging the conflict gives Russia the benefit of knowing that they can simply outlast the enemy. However, an unforeseen Black Swan event is a persistent risk that has to be acknowledged, especially now.
Whether the Prigozhin coup is a Black Swan event is of course something that can only be determined in time, it’s just too early to say now. That said, we need to keep some things in mind. I have never been a fan of PMCs. They were loose cannons in American wars and they are loose cannons in Russia’s wars too. Nation states need to have a monopoly on the use of military force, end of story.
I’ve also argued that the size and power of “Wagner Group” is wildly overstated. They’re most likely a network of small semi-independent units performing tactical missions, not operational missions. The idea that there are tens of thousands of mercenary soldiers under a centralized command is nonsense to me because, simply, there’s no evidence of such a command existing. It takes months, preferably years to train even a brigade command staff, and I haven’t seen any indication that “Wagner Group” has command staff at all. For a more in-depth explanation, see my story below:
Videos of handfuls of soldiers and vehicles standing around in Rostov-na-Don are compelling evidence that Prigozhin is wildly overstating how many men and assets he has.
There are allegations that Wagner forces have shot down several helicopters, though it’s important to say that there hasn’t been any video or photographic evidence of such attacks released yet. The overall situation is just odd, and the videos that have been made publically available are even odder.
I won’t completely discount the idea that this is some sort of elaborate military deception, however, I can’t possibly imagine what a deception like this would accomplish. As I stated above, a “play it safe” defensive strategy is one that is pretty close to guaranteed to work in the long term. From an operational risk management standpoint, the risks of such a stunt, no matter how coordinated it is, would vastly outweigh any benefits.
Real or faked, the stunt does seem to have convinced the NWO assets of Russia’s internal weakness, and I’m sure they’ll act on it. Previously, I wrote that I anticipate a major Ukrainian offensive in the Belgorod direction, because their western handlers are convinced that a Russian regime change is possible. If there are not any more large scale Ukrainian meat grinder attacks in the next 24-48 hours, I’ll be extremely surprised.
On that same note, I think the pro-ukie people I’m reading on social media are dangerously delusional. Regardless of how this drama plays out, it’s hard to imagine any other outcome besides Russia adapting a more aggressive stance to end the conflict sooner. We were already at an all-time high risk of nuclear war, and that risk just got even higher.
Update: It’s (apparently) been resolved:
Ian Kummer
Support my work by making a contribution through Boosty
All text in Reading Junkie posts are free to share or republish without permission, and I highly encourage my fellow bloggers to do so. Please be courteous and link back to the original.
I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.
Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).
Thanks Ian.
I still think there’s a possibility -just- of this being obfuscation; to give the West the impression that Russia’s internal situation is unstable and thus have them taking wrong decisions.
Anyway, it’s been a confusing chain of events.
Not with the news of that additional alligator shot down and the crew killed.
Yes, I just heard about that.
Black Swan Event or Hail Mary Pass? Methnks the latter. Next up is the already announced sneak attack on ZNPP, and a dirty bomb delivered by missile to make it appear that the reactor was blown up by Russia. These false-flags must come bang-bang-bang in order to spin up the angst to critical mass in the US and EU. All eyes are on Vilnius now, as the US and EU must pony up again for more aid to Ukraine, or everything grinds to a halt. My guess is that the Ukrainian military command was seriously considering its own coup, which forced the GAE to play the Prigozhin card now.
Apparently, a bullet has been dodged. For now.
https://readingjunkie.com/2023/06/24/wagner-agrees-to-end-insurrection-lukashenko/
Whenever Douglas Macgregor talks about Wagner he says that they function in the special military operation as a foreign legion, I guess because incorporating foreign fighters into the Russian Army would be legally complicated? Anyway they aren’t doing what Wagner does in other theaters of conflict which is to provide plausible deniability. There’s no mystery who they are fighting for in Ukraine. I never understood what good it did to use mercenaries there because they have to be fully supplied and coordinated with regular military units. Perhaps this is a good thing that they will be fully brought under control.