The Ukrainians are marching on Moscow

The Ukrainian “probing attacks” continue, with more to come.

Rather than repeat what a bunch of other people have already said, here’s a good video synopsis of what’s happened so far:

Also check out my post from yesterday:

Second Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive Has Begun

I can’t think of an actual plausible explanation for what’s going on, but “probing attacks” isn’t it. The idea of a probing attack or “reconnaissance in force” hasn’t been a thing since drones. Ukrainian forces don’t need to search for weak points, they should already know or at least have a pretty good idea.

And I also need to debunk this popular idea that Season 2 of Ukrainian Counter-Offensive™ failing would cause the war to end. In short, no. At this point, I haven’t seen even the slightest trace of doubt that the war should continue. If anything, the pro-Ukraine movement is just getting more hysterical, emotional, and impossible to reason with. Consider, for example, my favorite Austrian painter Tom Cooper, who weighed in on the continuing terrorist attacks on Belgorod region.

Example: Belgorod. Since 29-30 May, two or three – essentially – battalion-sized groups of Russian ‘militant oppositionals’, or ‘armed insurgents’ of the RDK and the LSR controlled by the GUR MO (Ukrainian military intelligence) have ‘raided’ multiple border villages and towns up to a depth of 10-15km. Theoretically, they should have been smashed since long: pulverised by superior fire-power of the ‘mighty’ VSRF, which demonstratively – at least according to the Pudding-controlled propaganda machinery called ‘the Russian media’ – brought in ‘reinforcements’, too. In practice, the situation is what the Russians tend to call a бардак (bardak, or ‘brothel’, or ‘mess’). One where the VSRF does not know what is going on, nor where, and the civilian authorities even less so. As a consequence, instead of ‘just raiding’ the area, the RDK and the LSR have established themselves in control of a sizeable swath of territory, some 200km wide and 5-10km deep: supported by massive volumes of ZSU’s artillery, they have destroyed multiple battalions – possibly even regiments (every regiment usually includes 2-3 battalions) – of the VSRF while advancing. They have destroyed additional Russian units thrown into counterattacks, too. ‘Best of all’: they have meanwhile hit even Urazovo: a place on the railway connecting Troitske with Biloukraine and Staroblisk. Considering the VSRF’s overdependence on railways for keeping itself supplied: this is nothing short of a catastrophe for the Russians…

They are reaching levels of cope that shouldn’t even be possible.

Please see my update on this topic below:

Lessons of Readiness and “Combat Mindset” from the Ukraine

Ian Kummer

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