Lately a lot of people have been asking me if I think if today’s midterm elections might make a difference in our foreign policy, particularly in Ukraine. Well, maybe. But two things need to happen.
The problem is that there is no correlation between public support and national policy. As I pointed out in a previous post, The war in Ukraine ranks rock bottom in issues that concern American voters. That alone isn’t enough to change anything. After all, the Afghan war dragged on for many years long after most Americans had any interest in it, or even approved of the idea. Biden’s disastrous withdrawal was widely ridiculed and condemned by his critics, but that was more than a year ago, and the masses have the memory span of a goldfish.
Republicans have been giving, at best, mixed signals about whether or not they are going to push for any changes in the Democrats’ money laundering scheme in Ukraine. Only a few, like Marjorie Greene, have openly expressed opposition to more funding for Kiev. It’s entirely possible blank checks to the comedian will continue even with Republican majorities in the house and the senate. Take Lindsey “war crimes” Graham for example. There’s no blood letting that he doesn’t enthusiastically support.
But… Republicans, with the exception of a few neo-cons, don’t have the same ideological fervor for an anti-Russia crusade like the Democrats do. Republicans may be afraid to be seen as pro-Russia, but I find it unlikely they’ll gleefully throw our own economy under the bus to hurt Putin’s feelings.
That’s why I say a significant change would require two things to happen:
- A Republican majority in both the house and the senate
- The
recessioneconomy gets even worse than it already is.
If both of these things happen, the political establishment may grow weary of Zelensky’s endless demands for money and insist on real negotiations. With their army suffering enormous attrition and their economy in shambles, Ukraine probably wouldn’t last a month without their sponsors. So maybe that means we’ll theoretically see the war finally end this summer, and I don’t want to be too optimistic because this could easily turn into a multi-year war anyway.
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School has been killing me lately, so I haven’t been able to write quite as often as I would like to, but I have more photos and drafts incoming, so expect more in the upcoming days. And here’s a hi from Spazz in Russia!
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Ian Kummer
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Hi Ian, if miraculously Republicans win the House and the Senate and even the Presidency this week, even then there won’t be any change in any policy. Maybe some slight changes on the surface but that’s all. What’s going on in the US is the result of the US system, and Republicans+Democrats are just cogwheels here. The same applies to the Ukraine policy of the US. Some Democrats may use it as a money laundering scheme but this is a _result_ and not the cause. The cause is the deep recession of Western Capitalism, and what Biden (actually, his team) is doing now is inevitable, and Trump would be doing the same (whether he wants it or not would be immaterial). Paradoxically sanctions etc. prevented this recession to reach Russia. Actually prevented it to be an integral part of the Western system. This was what the current Russian leadership wanted to achieve up to late last year. If the West had treated Russia as an equal and let her integrate in to the world system in the last 2-3 decades (like, say, Finland), there would be recession and all the same problems in Russia too. This is the logic of capitalism, and this is why China is more or less immune to these problems.
Hi Ian, great post as usual. I agree your studies should be your highest priority. Your posts are worth the wait.
With Winter coming and the ground around Kherson freezes I believe a storm is going to break. In reaction the lame duck Congress may do something crazy.
What you hope for I hope for and it’s not because I love republicans. I have a warmonger problem with them as well. Regarding economic policy, hopefully the pain of stupidity will stimulate thinking.
> So maybe that means we’ll theoretically see the war finally end this summer
Bro, it’s already almost winter.
This upcoming summer
Oh, my bad, sorry. I’m not a native speaker, so I assumed you meant to say Autumn or Winter and didn’t mean next year.
No worries, I phrased it ambiguously.