Ukraine’s Big Gamble At Lyman

Over the past several days Ukraine has mounted a huge three-sided offensive at an important supply hub in the Donetsk People’s Republic. The sizeable combined arms attack is accompanied by a worldwide propaganda campaign. Apparently, NATO anticipates a victory here and is throwing every available Ukrainian conscript against the barrels of Russian guns. This battle is unique, and significant, for multiple reasons.

Normally, I don’t try to keep up with day-to-day reports of individual battles, as there isn’t enough reliable public information and I just don’t see the point in trying to scrutinize every detail of a 1,000 km front that is constantly changing. However, I am making an exception now, and here’s why. There is a huge amount of propaganda surrounding this Ukrainian attack, which I’ll get into momentarily.

For a geographic perspective, look at these maps:

As you can see, there is a major rail station as well as several roads leading into the town, and presumably considerable Russian stockpiles in and around it. Look at this next map for a sense of scale.

I have seen no estimates of the forces on both sides, but an envelopment of this scale would require at least several thousand soldiers. Including the support echelon, there are probably 10-15 thousand Ukrainian soldiers in the general vicinity. This is also much more sophisticated than their earlier offensives like in Kherson and Kharkov, something like this would take a fairly high degree of command and control (C2). This might be Ukraine’s most ambitious attempt at maneuver warfare since their disastrous and humiliating defeats in 2014-15.

Also unlike in previous Ukrainian offensives this month, Russian forces did not withdraw. They stood their ground against the onslaught. From the Russian news site Military Review:

In the northern direction, the situation remains rather complicated, the enemy continues to make attempts to encircle Krasny Liman, cutting off his supply. The attack on the city is carried out from three directions, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are rushing to the borders of the LPR.

On Thursday evening, the situation in the Krasny Liman area looked like this: attacks on the city were carried out from three directions, in fact, Krasny Liman is in an operational encirclement. Despite this, all attempts by the enemy to take the city ended in failure, the garrison held on. The enemy is shelling the city with artillery and MLRS, including HIMARS.

To the north of the city, the enemy occupied Kolodezi, Zelenaya Dolina and cut the Svatovo-Makievka-Terny-Liman road. An attempt was made to reconnaissance in combat towards Zarechny, but having suffered losses from artillery fire, the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated. Zarechny is the last road connecting Krasny Liman with the territory controlled by ours. Attacks on Zarechnoye come from two directions.

To the west of the Liman, the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied Shandrigolovo and Novoselka, but ran into Drobyshevo, where the fighters of the volunteer detachment BARS-13 (“Russian Legion”) and the 20th combined-arms army of the RF Armed Forces hold the defense.

As of this morning, there are still no positive changes. There is information that our people are being squeezed out of Yampol. According to the WarGonzo TG channel, the withdrawal of our units is covered by MLRS, which have been working all night on the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, pulled up to Yampol. Attacks on Drobyshevo continue. But there is no objective information, there are no military correspondents in that direction.

According to the TG channel Older Edda, the night was very difficult and the day will not be better. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are crushing by numbers, regardless of losses. According to some reports, reinforcements are brought directly to the front line, without diverting units to the rear. On Thursday, from near Drobyshevo, it was reported that all the orchards near the city were clogged with the corpses of sushniks, no one was cleaning them up.

From this admittedly limited information, there are some important takeaways:

-Russians not retreating means they have inevitably suffered losses, will continue to suffer losses, and trying to retreat now would be difficult and costly.

-Ukrainians attacking on three sides exposes the Russian defenders to a lot of fire, but also exposes themselves to fire. Actually, exponentially more fire. The Russian garrison has had time to prepare so must have pre-registered artillery targets. This means wherever and whenever Ukrainians attack, even at night, as long as someone sees it coming, friendly artillery can be called down on that position with a push of a button. Since this has gone on for several days and nights, Ukrainian casualties must be staggering. That line from the Military Review article about the surrounding orchards being clogged with Ukrainian corpses probably isn’t an exaggeration.

If the Ukrainians are trying so hard to take Lyman so aggressively, even just pushing more reinforcements to the Lyman front with no attempt at unit rotation, that means they’re in a hurry. In part, this is likely due to the fact that NATO propaganda outlets have already practically declared victory. Newsweek declared that Russia faces “imminent defeat” in Lyman. CNN in particular sneered at the pathetic Russians: Annexation fails to hide gulf between what Putin wants and what his forces can hold

It was a moment of two completely incompatible events. One staged in Moscow, of a pen on paper, theater and imperialist expansion. The other the slow, methodical advance of Ukraine’s forces through poorly supplied and commanded Russian positions.

Friday laid bare the stark gulf between Russia’s ambitions and its reality. As Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a remarkable, fake ceremony – in the grandeur of the Kremlin’s St. George’s Hall and with and orchestrated crowds of support at a rally outside – his forces were losing in a strategic town in the very area he claims to annex...

Ukraine’s advances are gathering pace. Their focus is the railway hub of Lyman, which has gained outsized importance because of Russia’s dogged defense and the strategic role it may have in their control of the entire Luhansk region. Putin signed papers Friday claiming falsely this region has now become Russia and he will do so to a backdrop of extremely bad news.

A Ukrainian soldier posted a video Friday in front of the administration building of Yampil, a tiny settlement to Lyman’s east, from which Russia has apparently retreated, suggesting that Lyman is for the most part isolated to its rear from the rest of the Russian military. Regular Russian army forces, national guard and some volunteer units are said to remain in the city in a significant number. Cut off, their decision to fight or surrender makes little difference to Ukraine’s continued advance.

What I find particularly interesting about this trite piece of propaganda is that there is a gross error in fact, which I saw repeated across the entire western information sphere today.

Yet Moscow claimed at the moment in which the decree was posted online, these occupied areas suddenly became Russia.

This is incorrect. These regions are not a part of Russia yet. From RT:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed documents paving the way for the formal acceptance by the Russian Federation of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. The treaties await ratification by the Russian Parliament.

It’s incredible to me that the world’s largest news agencies have so little grasp of Russia they get repeatedly get even basic facts wrong. Anyway, there’s so much propaganda, Lyman is now trending on Google USA:

I can’t predict what’s going to happen in this little town of 20,000 people (on paper, pre-war), but there are allegedly attempts to relieve the siege.

The RF Armed Forces are deploying additional units in the direction of Krasny Liman, taken the day before in a semicircle by the Ukrainian armed forces. This, in particular, is reported by war correspondent Yuri Kotenok in his telegram channel.

If true, the relief couldn’t have come at a better time.

UPDATE: Please See My Follow-up Post about Lyman:

Lyman Debacle: NATO is Really Bad at Maneuver Warfare

Ian Kummer

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