The three simultaneous sabotage attacks against the Nord Stream pipelines on September 27 were more than an act of physical destruction, they sent a clear message to Europe. And this time, Cortes isn’t Spanish. Maybe he’s Polish.
In 1519, Spanish conquistador Hernan Cortes arrived with his army in the New World with the goal of conquering the Aztec Empire. According to popular legend, after unloading the last of the army’s supplies, Cortes assembled his men and burned the ships. The Spanish were about to march against an overwhelming enemy that vastly outnumbered them, and thoughts retreat and escape would be tempting to any sane person. Without the ships and only the sea at their backs, the tiny Spanish army had only one option left, to fight and win. I looked this up and apparently the story was slightly embellished; Cortes didn’t burn the ships, he dismantled them and later used their parts to assemble siege equipment later. However, legend mostly matches facts in this case, Cortes did destroy his ships and eliminate the “golden bridge” of escape.
Nord Stream I and II were another golden bridge, this time for Western Europe. Rachel Marsden writing for RT, put it this way:
Speculation abounds since both Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, designed to carry cheap Russian gas to Europe, were damaged this week in what officials widely describe as deliberate acts of sabotage. Who could be responsible? Incidents buried in the past may provide a clue.
Speculation abounds, and typically in a direction colored by the preexisting biases of the person speculating – which is hardly helpful.
Let’s start with the end result and work backwards. The outcome ultimately means that Europe’s economic impetus for ever seeking peace with Russia has been seriously undermined, if not literally destroyed. Someone has taken it upon themselves to demolish the remaining bridges between the two. Until now, there was always a chance of reconciliation. Russian President Vladimir Putin said himself recently that all the EU needed to do to pull itself out of its self-imposed energy crisis was to push the button on its gas supply from Russia and drop the anti-Russian sanctions that prevent it from doing so.
People in the streets of German cities protesting against Berlin’s blind following of Brussels’ anti-Russia sanctions also knew that was the answer. But now that option has been taken off the table. The EU is now adrift amid a deepening energy crisis and someone burned its last sails. It’s clear that Europe itself wouldn’t benefit from that. Nor does it benefit at all from any of its own anti-Russian sanctions. But who gave Brussels that idea, to harm its own economy in the first place?
At the onset of the Ukrainian conflict, it was Washington that egged on the EU to mirror measures that Washington itself had adopted in an effort to deprive Moscow of revenues to fuel its interests and objectives in Ukraine. The problem is that the EU’s economy was far more entwined with Russia’s than America’s. Any sense that US President Joe Biden and his administration may have given EU leaders, that they’d be there to help the bloc soften the blow of its self-sacrificial sanctions, has since been replaced by a harsh, pragmatic reality. US shale executives have explained to Western media that they simply lack the capacity to ramp up production for Europe’s winter crunch, even amid the growing rationing, deindustrialization, and risk of blackouts.
So, pressure has recently been increasing on EU member states to achieve a rapid diplomatic, peaceful resolution. But any reconnection of Nord Stream gas would have been a blow to US economic ambitions, which eventually include turning the EU into a dependent liquefied natural gas client. To that end, US officials have even tried to market their natural gas in the past as “freedom molecules,” in contrast to the “authoritarian” Russian gas.
Biden himself said of Nord Stream 2 during a press conference on February 7, before the Ukraine conflict had even popped off, that “we will bring an end to it,” despite it being out of American control. But even long before that, the US was sanctioning and bullying European companies into halting construction on Nord Stream 2 under the pretext of saving Europe from Russia. It’s worth noting that Europe didn’t really have problems with Russia this century until the US decided to make Ukraine an outpost for the State Department.
Not only did Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned operator of the pipeline, persist against all odds to finish it, but it’s really the only leverage that Moscow has in Europe. Attributing to Moscow the recent sabotage of their own economic interests in Europe seems absurd. The damage done to the pipelines now means that to prevent them from being completely filled with sea water and destroyed, Russia is forced to keep pumping gas through them and into the sea at their own expense. What exactly does Moscow gain from any of this? Conversely, what does Washington gain? Nothing less than Brussels’ full dependence, which proved elusive when Europe could split its interests between the east and west.
As for who possesses the technical ability to execute underwater pipeline sabotage, both Russia and the US do. Much has been made in the past of the potential for cutting undersea cables – defined as an act of war by UK defense chief Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. The US actually has a history in such operations, having tapped into undersea cables to spy on the Soviet Union in the 1970s Operation Ivy Bells, according to public records about Operation Ivy Bells. Washington also has sabotaged Soviet gas pipelines before, albeit indirectly – according to Thomas C. Reed, a former Air Force secretary who served on the National Security Council in 1982, when then-US President Ronald Reagan allegedly approved a plan for the CIA to sabotage components of a pipeline operated by the Soviet Union. The objective was to prevent Western Europe from importing natural gas from the Soviets. Sound familiar?
Time and inquiry will uncover the culprit eventually – if we’re lucky. EU officials are vowing to get to the bottom of it. “All available information indicates leaks are the result of a deliberate act. Deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response,” Tweeted the bloc’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell. Perhaps investigators could pay a visit to Radoslaw Sikorski, European Parliament member and former Polish foreign minister, who tweeted a photo of the disaster aftermath along with the note, “Thank you, USA.”
But if it indeed turns out that Washington committed what some consider to be an act of war against Europe’s economy, will Brussels have the heart to really confront it? Or will Brussels continue to find justifications to remain complicit in its own demise?
As counter-intuitive as it might sound, Russia is not the biggest loser in this situation. Russia lost expensive infrastructure that took years to build, and their most potent bargaining chip with the European Union, but besides that, won’t suffer for it. The biggest loser is Germany.
Starting in October, the new Baltic Pipe system will start bringing Norwegian gas to Poland. So Germany has not only lost a crucial bridge with Russia, they lost a bargaining chip with Poland, and everyone else. Poland no longer has any need for the European Union, they have all the tools they need to become the regional power that bullies Germany, instead of the other way around.
It also needs to be said that Poland is building a massive army, and Germany has no nuclear weapons of their own. Poland is a local strongman that everyone seems to assume is destined to attack eastward. But that’s a pretty big assumption, isn’t it?
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Ian,
Not a comment on this piece but an enquiry. There is a lot of commentary in the MSM about Russians fleeing the draft. I guess some will, but how widespread is this? That is, is it blown way out of proportion?
There is a huge “fog of war” going on here.
Any insights welcome.
Forbes recently published, that in Moscow countries МФЦ started is using drafts to men up to 35 years coming to get new passport.
“MultiFunctional Centre” is last years initiative to replace many local governmental and utilities authorities with centralized big offices, that are tapped to all required networks, and can receive and print documents for citizens, “one window” concept. Last time i used it was learning my own taxpayer ID (it was not needed, and even i possible for citizens to get under USSR, it was slowly uplifted to formally required and auto-assigned, but it is not used in 99.99% of private affairs) and make consultation about inheritanve laws. It was also a place of COVID vaccination.
So, you can see, really a LOT of citizens visit it every day. It could had make sense to pressgang men there.
But then this Forbes’ specification about “men under 35 coming for new pasports” doesn’t. Usually issuing passport was a function of the police, now MFC duplicate it like they do with others. However… there are specific cases when you get new passport: aging to 20 and 45 years, to replace photo with more appropriate; changing your name (usually because of marriage), having your passport lost or damaged.
As you can see, a pecentage of “menu under 35 coming to MFC for New passport” would be miniscule compared to just all the men coming.
This Forbes detail make no sense.
…except few days ago local media told (not sure if true or gossip) that Russia decided to make deals with guestworkers, often illegal, to provide them citizenship in exchange for military service.
If you make a leap of fauth you can see Forbes stringwriters reprinting those articles with some plausibly random translation errors.
—–
Now on the mobilization.
There was also speculation, many years, that Europe (natives and rapefugees) would be driven into desperation and poverty that would make them zerg rush at evil Russia.
I said, and many others did, that Russia should drive this war in Ukraine nice and slow till spring, hoping that maybe the fresh air in between would cool European heads.
The Poland was said to already preparing referendums for Western Ukraine to rejoin Poland, maybe fakes, however in winter 2014 those were Western regions who declared they do not report to Kiev government, which is de facto secession, now conveniently forgotten.
So, let’s think that Kremlin decided that Europe’s traditional drang nahc osten became realistic possibilty, and total mobilization might very soon became required. What would you do having a machine long unmantained and unused, that you learn you might soon need? I think you would run it on slow speed. To make everything that could leak – leak, everything that could break – break. Then repair. Then have it ready for real hard work.
Remember, before having war with Hitler USSR had war with Finland.
Putin said that problems and deficiences appeared with this partial mobilization has to be fixed. It seems self-evident, why had he to reenact Captain Obvious?
BTW mobilization is not only (which is most spinned). The legal wording is very vague, but mobilization also include factories and governing offices.
And the draft itself is also a public survey, acid test of one.
I meant Moscow county, oblast. T9 tricks…
You cannot be drafted via an МФЦ. It is a fake. We also don’t change passports between 20 and 45, so….
See, i usually do not aim at the “inconsistencies with the ground level” – it would be “h said, she said”.
I try to aim at inconsistencies in the story itself, whiuch can be evaluated by a faraway reader without trusting me.
As of passport changew – i explicitly quoted special cases when it is done. And i pointed, those cases are truely little share of all the changes.
P.S. i personally don’t mind people taking drafts in МФЦ too. I am not sure it is practical, would never be main avenue probable, but why not. I see no reason to prohibit it as a secondary way. Just like МФЦ were used for vaccination, despite not being hospitals.
it’s standard, believe me or not the same happened the last time. I personally expect abt to 300K to flee. It’s about how many supported Navalny and probably the number of soyboys. I met some. They plan to return which is disgusting. Someone has to fight for them then? Funnies thing is these hipsters are hardly subject to mobilization. At least now.
I’ve not been able to work out what these guys expect to live on – are they going to claim asylum and live off benefits? I’m sure it seems like a soft life if you come from some village in Albania, but I’m guessing this lot have developed a taste for the finer things in life.
Also, recent Polish talks about demanding ww2 reparations from Germany too, not only from Russia, sound less of buffonada now, don’t them?
However there is a problem with the Polish gas pipe – would should be its “deposits foundation”? UK and Norway sea fields are mostly dry.
While the coincidence is really troubling, the realism of Polish pipe dream seems not ensured.
I read somewhere that this new Norway-Poland pipeline’s capacity is 10 million of cbm per year at full capacity, while NS1 & NS2 where expected to bring 110 million cbm per year to Europe. Perhaps it is enough for Polish domestic needs, but I doubt it is enough for anything else.
The funniest thing is that Baltic Pipe takes oil from Euro pipe, that is full.
“but I doubt it is enough for anything else.” of course crippling Europe was a goal in this war from the beginning.
Maybe not, maybe it is not so much about “crippling Europe” how about “keeping Germans down” (c)
This Polish pipeline had to provide alternative route to nothern seas gas to make Poland the monopolistic hub and to make Germany hopelessly dependent on Warsaw monopoly
How many of European factories or households would perish or make it through – no one cares. It is just about making Warsaw a monopoly Berlin would have to obey.
I have to agree with you. Though if someone told me me a year ago that Poland was about to completely turn the tables on Germany, I wouldn’t have believed it. It is largely self-inflicted too
Man!!! oh, LOL…
Just few minutes ago at Smoothie’s i wrote “To think i am seeing the day Poles were more savvy in foreign politics than Germans…”
But yeah, that is maybe the most flabbergasting aspect in this all “living through interesting times”
Some Russian media claim Bundestag 29 Sep voted against a proposition to send more tanks to Ukraine.
https://yandex.ru/turbo/eadaily.com/s/ru/news/2022/09/30/nas-nemcev-ne-kasaetsya-bundestag-otklonil-prosbu-ob-uvelichenii-voenpomoshchi-ukraine
Ukrainian source too: https://sharij.news/bundestag-provalil-golosovanie-za-reshenie-o-nemedlennoj-postavke-ukraine-tankov-i-bmp
Google News seems silent on it though, the most close was vague https://www.thebulwark.com/olaf-scholz-and-why-germany-is-failing-to-lead/
Not sure if it is fake in RuNews or true news repressed by Google censorship
IF true, might be related to NS blasts
„Poland is a local strongman … destined to attack eastward.” If it should be so (and it could be), then Poland is on a suicide mission. Again.
Hi Kaz! What do you think of Poland/Germany relations right now? And with Russia?
Ian, I could write a book in response to your question. All I can do right now (having access to the internet only via my smartphone while temporarily in Poland) is that I can think at this moment of only two Polish politicians who deserve to be called high-class diplomats: Adam Rapacki, who famously proposed that middle Europe should be nuclear-free, and Mateusz Piskorski, who tried to normalize Polish relations with Russia (for which attempt he was unceremoniously arrested for over 2 years). Radek Sikorski, currently a top Polish politician, is frankly a loose cannon. And that’s putting it diplomatically. Sorry, that’s all I have time for now. But I will return to this topic.
Well thank you and I look forward to reading more from you!
I’m wondering if this has been the main objective all along. In many ways that’s a good sign – tensions with Russia will go down. Maybe the war – or western involvement in it – can finally stop.
Rando, too optimistic.
You were right, I should have kept my mouth shut until after Soyenberg’s speech
SOYENBERG OMG you’re too much
I did a little light reading on pipeline damage and repair. There are thousands of them and they are getting chewed up all the time, routine work. I think the European politicians might be more concerned when they lose the trust of the voters. Don’t know why Poland doesn’t expect to get it’s new pipeline blown up.
> why Poland doesn’t expect to get it’s new pipeline blown up.
Because, most probably, their pipe is part of the plan and they themselves are part of the gange who blew NS
They won’t blow their own pipe, i think.
However, if the Norwegian pipe gets ruptured to the north of Polish pipe junction, or if Polish pipe gets punctured, then perhaps i am wrong and it was not talking German on a leash, but forcing all the Europeans into cold and hungered hail mary on Russia
Could Poland have a plan to merge with what’s left of Ukraine and thus give the remaining area what’s now Ukraine an easy and early entry into NATO?
That’s a great question and, frankly, I wouldn’t even try to guess. I see a lot of commentators (both Russian and western) making claims one way or the other, but I think there are too many unknown variables. Polish nationalists seem to want a great Polish empire that stretches “sea to sea” but there’s also the question of if such a union would be culturally and economically viable. Ukrainian Waffen SS and right-wing militia massacred huge numbers of Poles in WWII, and helped guard the concentration camps, so it’s hard to believe there’s not at least SOME bad blood (going both ways) about that. I do think if Kiev’s government actually collapsed, Poland doing a soft annexation of western Ukraine is a contingency plan at the US State Department.