I’m seeing a huge amount of hysteria surrounding the recent developments from Ukraine this week. “Pro-Ukraine” commentators are smug, many “Pro-Russia” commentators have completely lost their minds. It’s all completely ridiculous and I am fed up with it. Here’s why.
At the end of August, I said this about the Ukrainian attacks in the Kherson region:
Ukraine is doing the military ops they are capable of, and they were trained to do. Professional and well-equipped armies do deep attacks with concentrations of manpower, equipment, and firepower. Ukrainians don’t have the training, coordination, and logistical support for deep attacks, so they compensate with many shallow attacks. This is how ISIS fights. This is how the Taliban fought (who won that war?).
So rather than moan that the Ukrainian offensive was ineffective so far, or a waste of time and lives, consider the reasons why people launch counteroffensives in the first place. A counteroffensive disrupts the enemy’s own offensive, inflicts attrition on their forces, consumes ammunition, fuel, and supplies, and destabilizes the territory they’ve seized from you.
More than a few readers here were outraged I would say that. Understandable, but now additional Ukrainian offensives in the Northeast have started. From CNN:
Ukrainian officials say the military has made sweeping gains in a counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, with President Volodymyr Zelensky asserting that a key city in the region has been reclaimed by Ukrainian forces and that Russian offensives across the country are being repelled.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautiously cheered battlefront developments after Ukraine said it had made advances during a counter-offensive in the southern and eastern regions. Russian officials on the ground acknowledged some setbacks but said Ukrainian forces were suffering “colossal” casualties.
“We see success in Kherson now, we see some success in Kharkov and so that is very, very encouraging,” Austin told reporters on Friday during a press conference in Prague.
Kiev claimed to have taken more than 700 square kilometers of territory in the Kharkov Region, advancing up to 50km into Russian-held territory and taking “more than 20 villages,” Reuters reported citing a Ukrainian general whom it did not name.
Reports from the area confirmed heavy fighting around the city of Balakleya and west of Kupyansk, with civilians fleeing eastward to Russia. However, local officials say the Russian reinforcements are turning the tide.
I’ve (mostly) tried to hold my tongue about Moon of Alabama, but lately the guy seems to have completely lost his mind.
The forces in the area were too few and too light. There should have been way more forces to block the Ukrainian move much earlier... Heads will have to roll for this disaster.
So to be clear, in the span of a week, he went from sneering that the dumb, stupid, idiot Ukies are being slaughtered in pointless attacks, to now critiquing the Russians for being stupid and not preparing adequately for the Ukie attacks. Well, MoA, which is it? Are the Ukrainians stupid, or are the Russians stupid? Or are they both stupid? Has it occurred to you that neither are stupid?
Okay, story time. I happened to be in Afghanistan in the RC-Southwest regional headquarters at Camp Bastion in 2011 when Osama bin Laden was killed. The Taliban vowed revenge and launched a massive wave of attacks across the region over a 24-hour period. This was not a blitzkrieg or any sort of maneuver warfare. It was just a large number of simultaneous attacks against many different ISAF and ANSF bases and personnel. These attacks, as widespread and numerous as they were, cost the insurgents many lives, and inflicted very few casualties in return. Of course everyone at Camp Bastion chuckled about how silly and stupid this was.
A little bit of background info on Camp Bastion. It was located out in the open desert, flat, sparsely populated wadis and tiny villages on all sides, with a clear line of sight for miles. Bastion was huge, housing thousands of soldiers, hundreds of vehicles, and was heavily protected by high berms, barbed wire, towers, aircraft, balloons, and mounted patrols. It was considered the most well-defended base in the whole country.
Then, in September 2012, Taliban insurgents attacked Bastion itself, breaking into the perimeter and onto the airfield, destroying 9 planes. It was the largest loss of American aircraft in a single incident since the Vietnam War.
I bring this specific incident up for two reasons:
- Don’t underestimate the enemy. This inevitably leads to disappointment.
- In an asymmetric fight, an opponent can still “win” in some sense even if he suffers vastly greater casualties.
Now, here are a few larger points, all of which I’ve made before:
Most of the “pro-Russia” commentators don’t give two shits about Russia or Russians, they are, ironically, using Russia as a proxy to satiate their own personal interests and vendettas. These commentators, like Moon of Alabama, set unrealistic goals for Russian forces in Ukraine, or in geopolitics, then get upset when such imaginary goals aren’t met. Worse still, I don’t think these guys ever thought to even ask what the Russians’ goals are. I said this back in April, Russia is not the savior you want her to be:
This is what makes the vapid Russophile movement offensive and self-serving. People announce they understand the “truth” about Russia, that Russia is a savior. Well, the truth is Russia is not your savior. They saved the world once, and sacrificed their own future to do it. Their country was destroyed and they lost almost 30 million people. Then they were rewarded with a 45-year siege. So if you think they’re going to liberate Europe again, you’re wrong. If you think the Kremlin is playing 12-dimensional chess to overthrow Europe’s oppressive governments, you’re wrong. There is no evidence for that assertion and they have no obligation to do that either.
So instead of cheering for Russia, you should do something else. I will explain.
Most western analysts, even the pro-Russia guys, actually no, especially the pro-Russia guys, is that they look at the Russian war effort through a western lens, and project their own biases onto it. So the Russian army failed a bunch of objectives, but they were objectives we came up with in our own minds.
A classic example of this is the attack on and around Kiev. I think it’s fair to say that the Russian MoD was hoping for a fast, relatively bloodless victory that forced a diplomatic end to the war. However, once that failed, the objective seamlessly shifted to keeping Ukrainian forces isolated and unable to support each other. But my main problem with bullish Kiev predictions isn’t that they were wrong, it’s that they were so violent. Forcibly taking Kiev was not an option. The city would have been utterly destroyed, and many more people killed. Look at what happened to Mariupol, with 450,000 people. Now imagine if that happens to the 2.8 million people in Kiev. It still might, though of course it will be much better if that proves to be unnecessary.
People ask me “how do you think Ukraine can win?” Well, I don’t. Because Ukraine and Ukrainians are cannon fodder, and their government is a puppet. They can’t win and that’s the point. They’ve been groomed into human weapons with only one purpose, to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible. I said this in March:
How could Hitler have been doing what’s best for Germany if his actions directly resulted in Germany’s destruction and subordination? Even if he was just a greedy dictator, that still doesn’t add up. Isn’t the whole point of being a dictator that you get to stay in power for life and die in bed? Suiciding yourself in a bunker while your capital is being destroyed isn’t exactly a success story.
Now let’s look at Zelensky. Ukraine had every chance to be a strong, independent country. They were given every chance to be independent until Feb. 24, before the first Russian soldier crossed the border. At any time until that last moment, Zelensky could have established Ukraine as an independent, prosperous, sovereign nation. Instead, he did the opposite…
There is nothing worse for a country than nazism. Germans had every right to be angry, and of course they wanted a strong leader who would say a lot of nationalistic things and start standing up for Germany. Hitler was a trojan horse. On the surface, he looked like that perfect candidate. He spoke of a strong, rejuvenated Germany, and the normal German person had a lot of reasons to like him. But in reality, Hitler didn’t have any ideas of his own and was a pawn of outside forces. He preached hate and racism, and there was no substance to his ideas. He reached for the easiest, lowest common denominator of human nature – finding someone else to hate and blame for their problems.
Remember when I said the information war in Ukraine is over? From that post:
Like a criminal proceeding, a war has a beginning, middle, and end, but audiences only care about the beginning and end. Aside from the people immediately involved in it, audiences around the world have largely moved on from the war…
The entire western media collaborated to keep these losses on the down low. I myself did not know that ANSF losses were that high until I looked it up for this post. Could the average American correctly guess what Afghan military losses were for the war? I doubt it, and that was deliberate policy. Afghan soldiers being killed and injured by the tens of thousands year after year would be shocking even to the most indifferent layman, and make him question if the war is good and worthwhile. This highlights the media power of simply ignoring a fact, even without the need to actively cover it up. Ignoring it is good enough.
Despite the years of intense fighting, the ANSF collapsed immediately after NATO support ended. Immediately. That’s consistent with South Vietnam too. It’s also a failure unique to us. Afghanistan didn’t immediately collapse after Gorbachev pulled out.
The war had been ongoing for 20 years and become routine. Then the end hit, and it was a humiliating one. We raged for a couple of weeks, then went back to forgetting Afghanistan again...
Note that the propaganda deluge has not decreased, but the law of diminishing returns definitely applies to the information war.
Again, here’s a recap from today’s search of the “Ukraine” keywords on Google Trends:
Combat in Ukraine has become routine for the Russian public, and that’s fine. But that’s not fine for Europe and the USA, where the sanctions war is pushing millions of people into poverty.. These Ukrainian offensives are intended to push the Russians off balance and force them to escalate. In turn, Ukrainian offensives are appropriately whitewashed, stripped of context, and casualties downplayed, then spoonfed to western audiences as propaganda. As long as Ukrainians are “winning” and there’s the perception that they’re suffering fewer casualties than the bad Russians, the story is more acceptable.
That’s the biggest “why” these offensives are happening. I’ve repeatedly stated my belief that this war is most likely to end in the winter. The Ukrainian government is on life support and western voters aren’t going to accept abject poverty, including literally skipping meals, to #standwithukraine. Or are they? What if I’m wrong, and the plan is to keep the game going through and after winter? To do that, Ukraine has to be “winning,” or at least holding their own. Meanwhile, European governments will just have to implement increasingly draconian measures to crush unrest from their own voters.
Image Source: Donetsk News Agency
Ian Kummer
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Sorry, this post doesn’t make much sense. This is first Ukrainian victory since 2014/15 and thus a huge boost for their morale. Nazi troops in Balakleya and other towns will now punish people who cooperated with Russian military, many will be killed or raped (both men and women, btw, this seems to be the Ukrainian way of waging war). This will have demoralizing impact on pro-Russian population in the territories still held by Russia. Your criticism of MoA is unfounded: he is pointing out errors of both sides, as they occur – there is no contradiction there.
omg)
No, Ian is very right, especially about the pro-Russia crowd.
It is a war, battles happen.
btw, people are being evacuated. No one is going to leave them behind, if at all possible. And yes, they do understand who the baddies are.
Hi Ian, There’s discontent already in Europe but I’m afraid this won’t stop the war, at least not in the winter. We are still far from starvation and getting frozen. The standard of living is dropping, and if this war drags along, your prediction will surely come true but I don’t think a single winter can do that. Remember, behind the democratic facade, Europe is ruled by the capitalist ruling class, and they need more than a general discontent and some loudly complaining activists. Even during the Vietnam era it took years and years of domestic disturbance and demoralization of the US Armed Forces for the ruling class to eventually decide on a pullout.
Hi Nyolci,
One winter can certainly cause one family to lose their business and home, but you’re right and all the signs are pointing to it – on an economy-wide scale, these countries can absorb the losses. And, as you said, there won’t be a change in policy unless their feudalist leaders decide on it. Suffering of the people doesn’t make any difference at all.
Europe is on its knees after 50 years of methodical economic destruction and social disruption.
This is what most don’t understand, we’re a pale shadow of what we once were. Everything is a facade kept by continuous injections of fake money.
No, we wont go through this Winter, we’re finished.
tbh, I don’t follow the news about this battle. It’s logical that the enemy tries to fight back.
It’s unfortunate that sensible, insightful comments like yours are exiled to the very edges of even internet discourse. (Looking at things from a Russian perspective: What a novel concept!) And it’s no small wonder that b banned you: He can’t stand competition, especially strong competition. Thanks for posting this; I’ll do my best to broadcast your message far and wide.
Hi Malenkov, thank you! Speaking of b, I went through his last couple of posts, not only are they crazy, most of the comments are crazy too. And a HUGE number of obvious ukrotrolls too. All the sensible discourse is gone. I wonder what happened to the guy’s brain because he didn’t used to be like this.
The account could be hacked or sold.
Hi Ian, what??? You’ve been banned at MoA??? Oh, my, this is getting stranger by the day… Anyway, “b” has always produced these strange swings in his opinion. I like this from his piece you cited from: “conscripted men of the Luhansk Peoples Republic” This is in line with the standard Western propaganda about Russian/allied forces. Now he is producing another swing, his most recent piece compares this “counteroffensive” with the Battle of the Bulge, and he assesses it (rightly, I think) as a kinda swan song of the Ukrainian AF.
That propaganda exists for a reason, it’s perfect for gullible people who talk before they think. Like “b” unfortunately. He reacts out of emotion and subconsciously accepts these talking points that were repeated over and over again. As for his assertion that this is like the Battle of the Bulge, well, maybe. I think “b” is just setting himself up for another panic. He is psychologically attracted to these assertions that the fighting is going to be over any day now, and when it doesn’t he wildly overreacts.
I did notice this morning (Sunday the 11th in the USA) that you’d managed to get in a comment in at MoA — using VPN? — which b of course deleted, but not before parts of it were reproduced in a few other comments. 🙂
I am in Russia. OF COURSE I have vpn
In my full comment, I politely said that he shouldn’t make emotional calls for Russia to escalate, because escalation is quite obviously not in their interests. I have really tried to give b the benefit of the doubt. When he deleted my comments and blocked my IP, I thought maybe he was mad I had shared a link to my blog. But nope, he is mad at me personally, and I do think it is because I mentioned I traveled to Russia. I find it interesting he was fine with me commenting and sharing links as an American. But the second I became a “Russian” I was no longer welcome.
Looks like you have been right, even Russian sources are admitting losing a substantial amount of territory near Izium to avoid encirclement.
Latest map https://t.me/zvezdanews/92175, and there are links to latest official report. Basically, there is a big bad battle, as I see it.
Opinion. I agree that this was a big amassment of troops, but I think it was timed to coincide with several meetings in the EU military HQ, to show that they can fight. https://t.me/SolovievLive/126341
Well, let’s see what happens.
another good take https://teletype.in/@oldhellboy/3nG-HxWQ303
It’s been very frustrating to scroll through commentary on this recent counteroffensive over the last few days. The hardcore commentariat has seemingly split into pro-Russian groups devolving into hysterics or pro-Ukrainian cliques heralding it as the toll of doom for the SMO. Splitting (in the psychological sense) is the disproportionately prevalent theme. There’s far too much emotional investment in picking sides and too little discussion on hashing out the base principles behind whether either side is making sensible moves. Like most wars, the decision-making and overarching strategy can only be verified posthumously but doesn’t stop anyone from making wild assertions.
BigSerge’s most recent post and Martyanov’s skepticism regarding the fog of war surrounding this counterattack, not his opinion on its operational significance or success so far, are the only level-headed viewpoints I’ve seen. I am curious though: do you think the former’s assertion that the Ukrainian push has failed to reach operational depth is correct?
Hi Inimitable NEET,
“I am curious though: do you think the former’s assertion that the Ukrainian push has failed to reach operational depth is correct?”
Good question, and the answer would be long. I’ll try to answer in my next post (hopefully later today)
I find your blog very helpful in trying to figure out what is going on so thank you.
The only people that actually know what is going on are an assortment of intelligence analysts working for a variety of national governments. The rest of us are trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle in which an indeterminate number of pieces are from another puzzle or more likely are pieces that look like they should fit but don’t.
You can either cheer on one side or the other or you can just try to work out what is going on, the former is human nature, the latter less so.
There was a bit of a drama earlier in the year when Scott Ritter said something that really upset a lot of people, Scott is a big boy who can look after himself however the debate loses it’s purpose when it becomes partisan.
Hi RZ,
Thank you and you’re right, cheerleading is pointless. Only hard, neutral analysis is useful and there’s very little of that going on right now.
I’ve often heard the expression we might have won the battle but we haven’t won the war. I’ve been involved in battles for saving our local health service but everytime you won one battle and moved one step forward local authorities made some move that meant you took two steps back. I’ve said a few times Ukraine needs to sustain and maintain this offence and to me Ukrainian forces are on borrowed time. They have to be resupplied by NATO. Things are getting tough in many NATO countries with an energy crisis looming so I wonder how long NATO can keep supplying Ukraine. Russia has shown it can adapt to a changing battle field and I’m sure it will adapt to this one. Russia has far too much to lose by losing in Ukraine so the Russian’s they know they have to win. Failure is not an option here. The winter favours Russia more than Ukraine so it is going to be interesting as to how events are going to unfold.
I do voiceovers for SouthFront and last week they were reporting the Kharkov “counteroffensive” as a “disaster” and indicative of incompetence in the Russian command. I like SouthFront and feel they do a commendable job in reporting but sometimes they are off the mark — as they were in assessing Kharkov. I have written about it here:
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-failed-nato-nazi-offensive-in?sd=pf The Russians are doing mobility warfare — and have been from the beginning. The push to Kiev was never intended IMO to force the Zelensky regime to negotiate — the Russians could be as sure that it wouldn’t do that, with forces 3 or 4 times greater than theirs, and with a force around Kiev obviously too small to take the city. In the Japanese martial arts (I live in Japan and have studied 3 or 4), self defense strategies against a bigger opponent often start with a sudden strike inside your enemy’s defense — close in– followed by distance. He’ s confused, angry and makes mistakes which you can take advantage of. The UAF had had 8 years to fortify their positions — setting up what I call a “maginot grid” just in case of a massive Russian attack.. After Kiev they tended to hunker down. Unless they DO something — like attack– it is a painful process to root them out, and destructive of infrastructure and civilian life as we saw with Mariupol. So the “offensives” in Kherson were Xmas come early for the Russians. At the end of the day, the UAF will have suffered up to 50,000 casualties (KIA and wounded) and lost 100s of tanks and artillery.
Southfront is alright but they have a tendency to repeat rumors without proper fact checking, which gets them in trouble from time to time. I do agree with you and will take a look at your post later today. 🙂 also see the update I wrote yesterday:
https://readingjunkie.com/2022/09/11/sept-11-is-now-ukraine-victory-day-and-other-thoughts/
That’s right. Also the Russian are strategically retreating from some territories in kharkiv as it doesn’t hold that much value. So the Ukrainians are not fighting piercily but encountering abandoned towns. Plus Russia sent 150000 troops which is less than %2 percent of their national army not counting reservists, if Russia really wanted to “invade” Ukraine the war would have been over in just three days. Also for me, the strategy of putin is to trap the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Donekts while Belarus will invade from the North (Belarus was holding military drills), Russian army + Pro Russian separatist army + Belarus army = destruction of Ukrainian army. Putin was part of the KBG and a former soldier, he knows more than Biden and these politicians that had never been in a battle war strategies.