This is a post I’ve been pondering for months, and it needs to be said. Let’s talk about the “pro-Russia” crowd. Yes, you. I see this attitude too often, and it annoys me.
My first complaint against #IstandwithRussia is that it’s silly. Russian flag emojis filters don’t do help, but they make people feel like they’re helping, which is the same thing, right? Look, I’m not saying there’s anything wrong with ranting about the war on blogs and social media. What I am saying is that the chatter is very often not constructive.
Yes, Russia has the right to exist, and the right to exist includes not being under the barrel of a gun. That includes the right to not have neighboring states declare you their sworn enemy and building huge arsenals meant to destroy you and your people. And, above all, let me remind everyone that this is not a cold war, and hasn’t been a cold war for 8 years. Ukraine made it a hot war, and they fired the first shots, continued firing shots, and ignored many, many opportunities for peace.
All these things are true, but all these facts support the idea that Russia has the right to defend herself. What these facts do not support is the idea that Russia needs to liberate anyone else but herself. Russia chose to liberate Ukraine, and that’s because they are almost the same people.
This is what makes the vapid Russophile movement offensive and self-serving. People announce they understand the “truth” about Russia, that Russia is a savior. Well, the truth is Russia is not your savior. They saved the world once, and sacrificed their own future to do it. Their country was destroyed and they lost almost 30 million people. Then they were rewarded with a 45-year siege. So if you think they’re going to liberate Europe again, you’re wrong. If you think the Kremlin is playing 12-dimensional chess to overthrow Europe’s oppressive governments, you’re wrong. There is no evidence for that assertion and they have no obligation to do that either.
So instead of cheering for Russia, you should do something else. I will explain.
Most western analysts, even the pro-Russia guys, actually no, especially the pro-Russia guys, is that they look at the Russian war effort through a western lens, and project their own biases onto it. So the Russian army failed a bunch of objectives, but they were objectives we came up with in our own minds.
A classic example of this is the attack on and around Kiev. I think it’s fair to say that the Russian MoD was hoping for a fast, relatively bloodless victory that forced a diplomatic end to the war. However, once that failed, the objective seamlessly shifted to keeping Ukrainian forces isolated and unable to support each other. But my main problem with bullish Kiev predictions isn’t that they were wrong, it’s that they were so violent. Forcibly taking Kiev was not an option. The city would have been utterly destroyed, and many more people killed. Look at what happened to Mariupol, with 450,000 people. Now imagine if that happens to the 2.8 million people in Kiev. It still might, though of course it will be much better if that proves to be unnecessary.
Pro-Russia share fundamental flaws with the anti-Russia crowd. Everyone loves instant gratification and have to have everything now now now! After the first few days, this was no longer going to be a short war. From one of my earlier posts:
That idea was obviously wrong and Russia can continue de-nazifying Ukraine indefinitely, whether that take a month or a year. Yet, I still see everyone rambling about how terrible Russian logistics are. It’s stupid to even say this. Just the fact that Russian soldiers still have food, bullets, and fuel is proof that they have adequate logistical support, regardless of how good or poor their battlefield performance is. Maybe it’s all propaganda but I suspect that NATO analysts chose this hill for Ukrainians to die on and refuse to update their Russia file.
Here’s another reason I think NATO is being stubborn and it isn’t working out for them. Russian forces are trying to liberate civilian infrastructure intact, and keep Ukraine’s economy operational. Russians are not conquering and occupying Ukrainian territory. They have far too few boots on the ground for that to work. Everything I’ve seen so far suggests they are mostly just clearing out nazi forces and leaving liberated towns to their own local governments.
At this point, I see no reason Russia couldn’t drag this out 6 months, a year, or maybe even longer than that. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and it’s an asymmetric one. I would wager a lot of money that it will be significantly harder for the West to prop up the Ukrainian regime for an extended period of time than it is for Russia to continue applying pressure. They waited 8 years of endless provocations and violence before acting, so it’s reasonable to believe they’ll be patient now.
Folks like Scott Ritter and Gonzalo Lira mean well, but they frequently contribute to the problem. A good case of this was Lira’s own abduction by the SBU. The internet was flooded with videos, posts, and memes declaring that Lira had been tortured and killed. At least some of this chatter was provoked by overly enthusiastic reporting by Ritter. It’s probable that the publicity contributed to Lira being released to house arrest, but still, don’t declare people dead until it is actually confirmed they’re dead. That’s the same stunt Zelensky pulled with the soldiers on Snake Island. If I ever disappear off the internet for a while, I would greatly appreciate it if everyone doesn’t immediately declare that I had been tortured to death, thanks in advance. See this good analysis from Moon of Alabama.
Another major problem is that decades of propaganda has so severely distorted our perception of Russia, even alleged “supporters” of Russia are often totally wrong and unhelpful. The reason for that is that you cannot win an argument if you start it on a false premise (or alternative choice of words, a wrong starting point). So when we debate whether or not it was right for Russia to start a war, that is a false premise. The war was started eight years ago by Ukraine, and Russia just now responded to it. Even the fact that I still see Donbass militias using a mishmash of odd weapons shows that, despite the nonstop propaganda about those militias actually being RFA soldiers in disguise, it turns out they were in fact militia all along, and Russia wasn’t even equipping them, or at least not anywhere close to the same extent NATO was arming Ukraine.
For example, there are many social media arguments about the Red Army’s horrendous, evil atrocities against the German people in World War II. One side of the aisle argues that this proves the Soviet Union was worse than Nazi Germany. The other side argues that the Germans had done bad things to the Soviet Union first, so those Germans deserved to be raped and killed. An interesting argument, but a stupid and counter-productive one because it is based on a false premise, a wrong starting point. The “rape of Germany” meme is outrageous and there’s basically no credible evidence for it. In fact, the opposite is most likely true, the Red Army was significantly better behaved than the western allies. Not because they were better people, but simply because the Red Army took discipline and punishment much more seriously (see my post here for a more detailed explanation).
The Russia bad talking point has literally not changed at all for 80 years. It’s a vapid appeal to emotion meant for sheer shock value and to waste everyone’s time. When people do this, don’t even try to reason with them. Just make fun of them, because they are silly and silly people deserve to be made fun of.
Look at these silly Estonians sitting outside the Russian embassy with soiled panties and bags over their heads.
Dear Estonians, you live in a very special and unique country, but little news about Estonia makes it all the way to the USA. Doing silly things does get you attention but it does not make Americans like you more. Standing outside a foreign embassy in your underwear with a garbage bag over your head is silly. I know not all Estonians are silly, but that is going to be the first image that comes to my head whenever I think of Estonia now. Sorry.
When I first glanced at that photo, I actually thought of those sad sea creatures who get caught in plastic on the beach. “You threw away your trash instead of recycling it properly, now look what you’ve done to these poor Estonians.” That was the very first thought that came to my mind when I looked at this. I think they could have worn the panties on their heads and the bags on their asses and it wouldn’t have looked any more silly.
Anyway, I take issue with the “Pro-Russia” bloc because they have a lot of demands but offer nothing useful in return. They howl that Russia is “losing” the information (propaganda) war in western countries. I’m sorry, but who cares? Are they obligated to feed you more fodder for your blogs and twitter pages? See my series on the information war, a marketing campaign needs to achieve some tangible result. What does Russia gain by spending man-hours, money, and resources to influence western media?
There are only two ways you can meaningfully help.
- Join the Russian army. But of course if you’re not a Russian in Russia, that’s not really a thing you can do. Unlike Ukraine, Russia is not hiring random mercenaries and thugs.
Or
- Donate money.
If you’re still reading and your eyes didn’t immediately glaze over, yes, it is possible to donate to the humanitarian crisis. Civilian victims of war don’t necessarily have a “side” and it shouldn’t matter which “side” relief goes to, but of course we all know it does. The sad reality is that it isn’t safe to donate money to any Ukrainian institution. It’s not even safe to donate to any western institution. Any money going to Kiev has a high risk of being stolen or used to buy weapons. For Kiev, civilians are human shields or political bargaining chips and that’s it. So donate to the Russians, who actually give a shit.
фонд География сердца (Geography of the Heart Foundation) is a legitimate charitable group that has been organizing medical and humanitarian aid to Donbass, both to the people and the militia. Despite all of the financial sanctions, it is possible for non-Russians to donate. Contact them here:
Email: OrlovLDNR@ yandex.ru (remove space)
Telegram/WhatsApp: +79060372855
Telegram Chatbot: @WarDonbass_Bot
VK Page
Earlier, I said don’t cheer for Russia. Instead, cheer for your own country. Cheer for Germany, Canada, France, or whatever country is on the cover of your passport. Stop weeping for Russia to come save you and start holding your own government accountable.
And by extension, and I know a lot of people are going to be mad at this but I’ll say it anyway, stop blaming the USA for everything. Yes, Americans are guilty of a lot, but we’re not guilty of everything. And honestly, what are we supposed to do? Very few Americans are under the impression that we’re holding the UK, Germany, Poland, and the rest of the Euro gang hostage. And to be honest, we’re not. If, for example, Germans made an actual serious effort to be an independent nation and told all American troops to leave, well, we would. The vast majority of Americans don’t care that much about Germany.
Like the League of Nations, most Americans don’t actually care very much about NATO. I’m anti-NATO, obviously, but you guys aren’t giving me very much to work with. The vast, vast majority of European people I talk to get all angry and insist that NATO is this super important “defensive alliance” against the Russian orcs. Not to be crude, if America was a man, and Europe was a woman, this arrangement would be consensual. If Europe insists that she’s having a good time and is enjoying it, how can anyone really argue otherwise? To argue that America is oppressing Europe is a direct statement that Europe has no agency, and is for some reason unable to elect her own governments. No. What it actually means is that Europe could be bought for a few dollars. If that comment stings, well good. Do something about it.
So stop complaining, but your own flags in your social media platforms, and stop allowing a handful of globalist elites ruin your countries.
Now cheer up and watch this video from the Luhansk People’s Republic.
Ian Kummer
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I corrected a missing link, to the World War II story. Can also see it here:
https://readingjunkie.com/2021/11/09/world-war-ii-was-the-greatest-moral-failure-in-western-history/
This is a good article. Thank you.
Fully agree that we in Europe (I am in the U.K.) need to rediscover what our true interests are here. Peace with Russia from a position of mutual respect and strength clearly has to make sense for all sides.
Siding with US Neo Cons to use Ukraine for poking the bear feels a very stupid thing to do. I also struggle with how it is in overall US interests, as opposed to the sectional urges of those Neo Cons and the Military Industrial Complex. Having lived in the US for a couple of years I fully agree too that most Americans do not spend much time thinking about the outside world: that is what enables a small minority to drive bad policy.
I think an unexpected eventual outcome of this war (once the hysteria dies) will be a realisation that looking to either the US or Russia as saviours is a fools paradise. And I agree with you: why should either play that role.
Hi Stephen,
I think a large part of what drives US policy is:
1) American elites identify more with Europe than they do their own country, and European welcome American elites as part of the club (I continue to be amazed how Obama is worshipped like a God when he visits Europe. I don’t think he even gets that much praise in Illinois).
2) There is a fear of a Europe/Russia partnership, which would be the completely sensible thing to do. That goes back hundreds of years – turning Alexander and Napoleon on each other was VERY shrewd diplomacy on the Brits’ part.
3) Despite the buddy/buddy relationship, I do suspect that the EU is seen as an economic competitor to the USA. Things are getting a little tough here, so tossing EU under the bus would help. It also harms Russia and China, who lose the trade, if nothing else.
Thanks for the reply. I think this is right.
Getting Alexander I to break ranks from Napoleon’s Continental System was indeed very smart action by the British.
Agree too that a realpolitik school of thought amongst some American elites must be that a forever war in Ukraine is beneficial in keeping the EU down, dependent on the U.S. and away from Russia. As your article implies, hard to see how that is in the EU’s interests.
We will see if European leaders manage (or want) to extract us from the trap that they seem willingly to have walked into! French Gaullism needs to reassert itself.
> I continue to be amazed how Obama is worshipped like a God when he visits Europe. I don’t think he even gets that much praise in Illinois
Because he’s Irish and therefore one of them
Oh Lordy!
Damn… That shot knew where to hit..
I realized that I subconsciously wanted “Voivode Volodya” to crush our Transhuman elite but you´re right, it´s up to us, God grant us strength to prevail.
No, Russians are too precious, sorry
I can add you few more points.
West invaded Syria in 2011, AFAIR.
Russia came in in 2015. When Syria proved they really see this as a fight for their existence and would die fighting rather than live enslaved.
I believe, West also destroyed Ukraine in October 2014 to delay if not divert Russia’s joining Syria. So, maybe it could happen in 2014 already. But even then it would happen only after 2014-2011 3 years of desperate war Syria and few allies pledged against the rest of the World.
Georgia invaded Osetia in 2008, Russia threw her wait in. But the first Georgian-Osetian war happenned in 1990-s and there never was a true peace since then, but more of a low intencity war.
Ukraine invaded DPR/LPR in 2014 and pledged the war ever since. Only 8 years later Russia “personally” came to the war, when those nations demonstrated their resolve to die fighting and were (just like Syria in 2015) droven to the btink of existence.
Any “keyboard warrior” who thinks his social network drama over putting flags to avataras is somewhere close to nations being put on the edge of total ethnocide is… not serious about life and himself.
Syria was not attention-whoring for Russia, it was fighting for her life, desperately and determinedly. This, and ONLY this made Syria worth of support in Russia’s eyes. Same with rest. Russia can help anyone’s uphill battle – but there has to be battle, and it has to be their own battle, not Russia’s. Where there is no one fighting – there is not one for Russia to support and help.
Personally i would rather see Russia helpin Yemen than occupying/liberating/owning/whatever all of Europe.
Ok, I’ll bite on this tempting morsel of garbled self-righteousness. You, Ian, have captured my sentiments extremely well in many of your previous posts, which I first encountered a few days ago and read voraciously. This rant, however, is all over the place. If you have a problem with Scott Ritter or Gonzalo Lira, that’s fine and I’m glad to hear it. If you have a problem with Estonian protesters, that also interesting. But I’m not sure how these fit together into a coherent post.
You actually seem to be attacking my personal perspective that Russia’s standing up to the West may be good for those of us in the West who are being misled. Speaking up for the truth and criticizing one’s own government is of course useful. Speak out, to the extent feasible, about what you believe and have observed. If you want to put a flag to show your support for Russia, that’s fine. I’ve got a problem with people flying the Ukrainian flag, because I disagree with the Ukrainian position in this war, not because there’s anything inherently bad about showing support for one side or the other.
I just commented on an article at Gilbert Doctorow — https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/04/21/they-must-be-out-of-their-minds-how-the-collective-west-is-stumbling-towards-nuclear-armageddon/comment-page-1/#comment-1642 — and I realize this mindset may be what you’re criticizing:
“The thinking now is that Ukraine might actually win. Not only preserve its existence as a state, but actually win a military victory against Russia. There has still not been large Russian offensive in Donbas, there is no closed “cauldron”, and thinking is growing that Russia simply does not have the number of troops to win in Ukraine, and for whatever reason Putin is incapable of changing the calculus. It is now about 2 months into this invasion, and eventually the excuses run out.”
This person is upset with Putin and Russia for not winning the war conclusively within 2 months, or something. He quotes “the thinking” and says that “eventually the excuses run”. So, yes, there are a lot of annoying commenters out and about.
Hi Detroit Dan,
Yes, this is exactly the mindset that irks me. And I did mention Scott and Gonzalo specifically (being the more well known pro-Russia critics in the West) – I don’t object to their motivations, and I don’t have some moral or personal problem with them, but they do tend to engage in this sort of realpolitik analysis of what Russia is doing, which I don’t think is useful, and isn’t the same lens that Russians are looking through. The comment you cited is an extreme of that, demanding blitzkrieg, when this war was never a blitzkrieg, and blitzkrieg isn’t a Russian tactic and never was.
Regarding the Estonian protesters, I brought them up as a specific example of poisoning the well. You have one side arguing “Russia bad because they commit atrocities” and the other side arguing “the atrocities are justified” neither of these arguments are helpful because they’re both based on a false premise, and automatically accepting that these atrocities happen.
> blitzkrieg isn’t a Russian tactic and never was
That is a stretch. As tactic it is as Russia’s as anyone else’s.
Granted, it is not Russia’s forte when comparing to European armies. Nor it was Russia’s strategy, again, against European assaults.
However as tactic, Russia is quite capable of it. Again, maybe worse than European armies, but still good enough. Opening week or two of Ukraine war was a good example of blitzkrieg. The 08-08-08 war was too.
This actually is more about you “false starting point” example. Ukraine was never military problem. If nothiong-nothiong-nothing else, we could always nuke them out. But what then? What to do with those millions of deranged people corroding and statehood that ever owned them, for centuries? What to do with those deranged dreams of European wealth, that Russians somehow for centuries were ripping off them? What to do with derelict ex-Soviet houses and industries?
Blitzkrieg or attrition, Jeez… That is not the problem at all. Regardless of what kool aid drinkers in NATO and Kiev think, Ukrainian Army was never a primary problem. Ukraine itself is.
And frankly and cynically i would be perfectly comfort if all Ukrainians now would gain the European life (as in life and work in Europe) they were promised by the 2013 coup. There is a stick – evil mordorian Russian hordes eager to kill, rape and eat every Ukrainian. There is a carrot – all so allied EU. And hopefully when the winter comes again there would be a Russian leverage over EU to never them dare making Ukrainian refugees unhappy.
Russia should be savior and hope of all the Ukrainians, their protectors in their new, long awaited and “rightfully theirs” European life. Granted, this would need Russia to apply some stick to EU to keep them civilized and to never again treat Ukrainians like they historically did (https://masterok.livejournal.com/1929539.html).
Frankly, why not? Europe claims they love Ukrainians. Ukrainians claim they love Europe. We just need to help them unite till death do them part.
Hi Arioch,
Blitzkrieg is a combination of very specific people, physical realities, and ideology, and it has roots going back to Clauswitz. I’m not saying Russia isn’t capable of armored attacks and pincer movements, of course Russians are capable of these things and do it often. What I’m saying is that the Russian mindset toward warfare is different than Europe’s. Just your statement about Ukraine being a problem of a country, not a military, I think illustrates the different mindset. If this was an American operation, or a NATO operation, the goal would be to destroy Ukraine’s military and economy. While Russia is destroying Ukraine’s military assets, the goal is clearly more socially and culturally orientated. And to be honest, I think this is more effective than our fixation with 1940s German battlefield tactics. I think this is also a case of beginning an argument on the wrong starting point. We have this idea that countries can be successfully changed by invading and destroying them. Clearly, this is not true, and why it almost never works for us.
and there is a potential problem that is caused directly by the pro-Russia experts. I think Scott Ritter, to his credit, has realized the mistakes he was making in the first phase of the war and is walking back his statements and choosing words more carefully, but the problem still persists. At some point, this war is going to be over. I have ideas of what it will look like, but really, there’s no way to know. The problem is that if we assign objectives that Russia is “supposed” to do, and they don’t do that, then it is a failure – but it’s a ridiculous failure because it’s based on an imaginary premise that we came up with in our own minds.
If that makes sense.
The problem with Scott and Gonzalo is that nobody knows them outside Russia, or the percentage is negligible. Russians think, “oh, wow, there is reason in the West, we have friends, the US ppl likes us, and we can have peace! We can be frends!” (Ian is right, we want that). Not true tho. Scott and Gonzalo have to work on home audience. You have to stand up against your own governments. Not because you love Russia. But because you love America and consider it worth saving (note that our politicians have been saying that the world needs strong Russia, strong China and strong USA (but not mad USA), cuz every Empire needs counterbalances). Russia will not do this job for you this time. We once tried to liberate Europe. And Ian is right, Europe feels defeated, not liberated, nazims and systemic russophobia are back (note that Russia never had systemic racism). Now Stalin is worse that Hitler. See what I think about it (https://t.me/condor_the_bird/2680). Without Stalin and Russians/Soviets even the USA would have more trouble fighting Japan. So, don’t expect Russia to change the world single handedly. Russians are not top priority. Not the world. Do your part of the job.
now the top priority. Typo.
> We once tried to liberate Europe.
Once? You probably mean WW2?
But what about Entente Cordialle, “Christian countries saving civilization against German brute”. Okay, that one was just Russian domestic propaganda, and perhaps can be dismissed.
But what about Holy Alliance, the 1815 effort to prevent “color revolutions” (though the term was different then) ?
Europe always saw Russia a stupid “village idiot” who begs to be exploited. Bad thing, that perhaps Europe was right in this.
There is nothing specifically wrong in just stating your support for Russia (or Ukraine or anyone) and going on.
Problem is when it becomes some addiction.
Like EVERYONE has to put ukrainian flag on their avatara, or else they are cancelled.
Now, suddenly placing Russian flags on online avatara looks like some brave deed that entitles you to some reward, at least a reward of “thinking good about oneself” (but other times much more).
Is “thinking good about oneself” something bad though? Well, it is. When your ship goes down it is time to DO omething about ship – or at least personal – survival. Instead people put some flag – Russian or Ukrainian, Israeli or Palestinian, etc – on their virtual free alter-ego, and by this “act” they calm themselves into doing nothing. In a sense that is the same what heroin addict does to himself, injecting next does instead of going to doctor. Does makes him “feel good”, just like ukrainian or russina flag makes “feel good” a pollitically distressed netizen.
Then there is another strain, and very vocal one. Lovers on condition. Though, i suppose Ian did not meet that many of them, but dorums like Saker’s or Orlov’s do. Those “pro-Russians” who somehow decided Russia came to fight their fights instead of them, and they hysterically deify Russia for few months, then declare Russia betrayed them, their love and their trust, and start bashing and hating Russia. I suppose, American alt-rightists should provide examples. When Russia joined Syrian war there was a lot of gloating how Russia would nuke out Jerusalem, and all American politicians would be replaced with caring and patriotic ones. But 2015 came, and 2016 and in 2017 Jerusalem still was not nuked, and all those “lovers” were no less loud about Putin being Netanyahu’s whore and is complicit in destruction of white race or something.
Or i can remember one Serbian woman from Mantinegro, who professed her love to Russia and Putin so obsessively, that i felt suffocated even through internet. Except that Putin failed to liberat Kurds from Assad’ tyranny and yet worse, allied with Assad. This twist i could expect from anyone but Serbian. When i pointed to her, that to Syria Kurds were nothing different that Kosovo and Metokhia albanians to Serbs – she went apoplectic.
Basically, that strain consider their vocal manifestations of love some unique and precious loan, which makes them entitled to boss Russia around and order Russia what to do to repay them a tiny fraction of Russian debt. Their essense is no idfferent from Russia haters – they consider Russia to be a tool for their profit, a food for their feast. But their “pro-Russian” posturing makes them much more toxic and dangerous than sincere enemies or overt profiteers can ever be.
I have read the Saker, and lately, I am becoming tired of him and that crew. I only started reading him a year ago, so I missed whatever he was saying about Syria in 2015-17, but I am seeing this attitude now. He loves to be an armchair general, and make wild declarations about what he perceives to be failures in the Russian armed forces. He does espouse that attitude that Russia should fight all our battles for us, and it is tiring.
Saker seems to be very biased for Iran. Maybe because he seems deeply religious.
Anyway, when people were demanding Russia to destroy Israel over Syria he was not into it.
Also you may consider reading Saker’s old essay (rant?) about “PilBan syndrome”, a very strong word for listless isolationism. Was targeted mostly toward Poland and Poles did some cries in the comment. Rubbed them against their fur.
Sorry, I truncated the quotation at the end. It should be “eventually the excuses run out”.
Hi, Ian, it’s the person from Canada you recently responded to via an email request.
Thanks for another great post- stripping away delusions is always a relieving thing. A reduction of burdens and an increase in focus on what can be achieved.
I’m not in a position to radically change my country towards a better, more secure future except through small, one-on-one interactions that encourage critical thinking, through being helpful one situation at a time, through learning to simply listen and observe better, through recovering a discarded bicycle and putting it back into circulation for someone on a tough budget.
But with each passing day here, I feel even Canada slipping further into hard stratification- between Liberals and Conservatives (we barely have a functioning left anymore like most western nations), between home-owners and renters (who will likely never own a home in their lifetimes), between people who still want Canada to make a difference in the world and the last 15 years which have seen us become more and more aggressive, more aligned with US interests. We just have so little to be proud of anymore, at least not in any meaningful way. Since the advent of the convoy protests, I’m literally sick of the sight of the Canadian flag- just another symbol to be used as a weapon against those you hate. And whatever illusions about how Canadians always cared each other, we know now that when push comes to shove they were just illusions. There are those who have theirs and won’t give it up no matter who has to pay, and the rest of us who own nothing, rent everything, and keep watching our limited finances be able to buy less and less while corporate profits are stratospheric since the start of the pandemic. And no one has a vision for how to move forward anymore. Just splinters of ideas that go nowhere.
At least my personal bread and circus the Toronto Maple Leafs are having a great year, although I’m shocked every day that our Russian players haven’t been cancelled.
In addition to the above, I guess I’m holding out hope that the new multi-polar world will allow us to find a way out of the death trap of the hegemonic pattern we’ve been stuck in since WW2. Maybe, given that it appears Russia isn’t interested in obliterating other nations, only defending the Russian people, and China appears to want to avoid military conflict as much as possible while executing win-win situations for other nations through the BRI, maybe we can, as a species, discover a new way to cooperate before it’s too late, knowing that the shattering of the old system itself is going to cause incalculable privation and desperation. Where each nation grows their own food, makes their own medicine, ensure everyone has a home, an education and healthcare, while supporting each other to face the coming relentless catastrophe.
I know it’s the longest of long shots, but the alternative is, well, we can all figure that out.
Hi Ian,
I like you essays, and I mostly agree with you (as if my agreement is that important 🙂 ), here too, except for the last few paragraphs (USA Europe). I even agree with you that this is not an openly coercive relationship. But the US, or more precisely, the ruling class (in the Marxists sense) of the Western capitalist block does set up limits, red lines etc., and does intervene (with very diverse means) if something is about to happen that is against its liking. Okay, we get a much milder treatment than Central America, or even Chile during Allende.
But in Western Europe, the extremely popular Communist Parties were forced out from power, castrated etc. by the US with the help of various secret services set up after the war, very often staffed with ex Nazis. Nowadays, no serious “non Atlanticist” political power is allowed to emerge.
Another example would be Hungary (my country) around 2015. There was a series of demonstrations etc. against the government. The US Embassy was actively involved, eg. the consul (there was no ambassador that time), a certain André Goodfriend was actually participating in demonstrations. In terms of diplomacy, this kinda behavior is considered extremely, or even terminally outrageous. The whole thing was looking like a colour revolution. The liberal press was salivating. Of course it was absurd, the government was elected a year before with a landslide, people wouldn’t start revolutions this quickly. The possible reason was that Hungary signed an agreement with Russia for another nuclear power station. Anyway, it abruptly ended after a few months, almost like as if it had been deliberately stopped, with a likely background agreement between the government and the US.
Regards,
nyolci
Hi,
I haven’t been to Hungary (like Tucker Carlson has), nor have I researched your history and politics deeply, but it does seem like Hungary is a very good example of a healthy dose of nationalism. American media accuses Hungary of being “pro-Russia,” but I don’t think that is even true. I just think Hungary is pro-Hungary As a result, you have sensible energy policies and are investing in nuclear energy, with an agreement and financing from Russia. If helping your own people is “pro-Russia,” well…
Agree. FYI we have the same government since 2014, and it just won with an even bigger landslide a month ago. Well, a lot of people hate them – including me – but they hate the (Atlanticist) opposition even more. One of the defining issues was the war. We don’t want to be involved in another US colonial adventure. The most important point was social services, the opposition was pushing some garbled neoliberal bullshit, and it was inciting against the nuclear power station and a big Chinese investment (a European campus for the Fudan University of Shanghai). Very bad set of priorities. As if they were pushing some NATO agenda… They got destroyed.
Ah, thanks. Every time I see something like “the Russians will save the world from a transatlantic financial cabal”, I feel painfully embarrassed and bewildered.
Guys, I’m serious. We’re tired of saving anyone. We saved Europe from revolutions in the 19th century and they hate us. We saved the guys from the Balkans from the Turks a little later and they, minus the Serbs, hate us. We saved the French from the Germans in World War I, and the British also from the Germans in World War II. And guess what? THEY HATE US.
To hell with that. The entire West is not worth the bones of one Russian paratrooper. What we really want to see is guys like the Hungarians: their main concern is the welfare of their people. It’s that simple. No bullshit about democracy, anyone’s rights, liberalism, white supremacy, fighting for all that’s good against all that’s bad, saving anyone from anything, and all that crap.
You have problems. Everyone has. These are your problems, so solve them. Don’t wait for someone to come into your house and clean up the mess. Do it yourself. This is your house, not Russian.
The EU will put itself out of misery once and for all when it votes to ban Russian oil and gas imports. There will be nothing left for Russia to do but to oblige. As much as they would like things to be otherwise in terms of their relationship with the west, Russia is redirecting all its efforts towards its neighbors in Asia. It has compiled a list of friendly countries, which currently includes something like 80% of the global human population. Not a small market by any stretch of the imagination.
In spite of all the PR to the contrary, Ukrainian losses continue to mount. Trump is roaring again, while
“Where-have-you-been” Blinken visits beleaguered Kiev. This all saddens me deeply.
Nice post.
I picked up on this blog from Mr kimmer’s post on Moon of Alabama. The article here is interesting but, I think, misses two fundamental points. First, its perspective is almost entirely Western. There is little consideration given to the impact that this war (and Russia’s standing up to the big guy (not Mr 10%) in Syria) is having outside the West. And that’s the second point. Whether it is taken as Russia fighting for the third world or not the war, and Syria, have empowered people (The Saudis, to trade oil for not $, the Solomon Islands to make treaties with China, even Pakistan to try to resist a takeover, lots of Africa and Asia to confiently embrace belt and road, or any other arrangement which suiits them) to take decisions with less fear of a colour revolution or a straightforward R2P intervention taking place in their country if it is the wrong decision. Not that the Russians will turn up to slap the big guy every time; of course, they can’t. But they are showing the limits to the big guy’s power and that the big guy can be resisted. Soon, China will be able to do so – indeed, of course, these limits on the big guy’s powers have existed for some time (Iran, North Korea both strangely threatened but nonetheless free of the big guy’s interventions so far, Cuba, Venezuala under the Russian/Chinese protection?) but what Russia is doing is now going beyond deterrence to actually rolling back the big guy. That, for whatever reason it is being done, is a good sign for many smaller, oppressed nations
Not to forget to combine the war with the petro-ruble initiative..
There is a VERY big difference between “rolling back the big guy” from killing their families in Donbass, and rolling him back on a global scale. My point is, Russia isn’t going to be the personal savior of every country on Earth. I would be very surprised if they spent the lives of their soldiers liberating anything outside of their own immediate neighborhood.
Another great post, Ian, one that resonates with me in particular because of the song you have attached. In my blog and elsewhere I promote the Pagan, pre-Christian heritage of Slavic peoples. It’s not easy because over the past 1000 years it has been nearly eradicated by both the Catholic and Orthodox Churches.
The Pagan culture is submerged, but it is there. There are bands, like the Russian folk-metal band Arkona, that devote all their songs to Pagan Russia. If you have Slavonic blood, as I do, you can easily relate to such music and lyrics, although you find it difficult to express it in words, particularly in a foreign, second language like English is to me.
In addition to Polish, which I speak as fluently as a native speaker of Polish, I used to speak some Russian when I was in high school. So when I found a particularly evocative Pagan song in Russian, I decided to translate it into both English and Polish. The song captures what I would call the beautiful but sad mystique of Pagan culture, although there is probably a better way to express it. Anyhow, before I give you the link to the YouTube song by Daria Volkova, I would also like to say that Russian culture whether Pagan or Christian is a powerful influence on me. Sometimes I don’t quite know why. Anyhow here’s the text, my translations, and the YT link
Daria Volkova, „Pечка быстрая” („Bystra rzeczka,” “Swift River”)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1j5r31afju0
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A oto mój komentarz na YouTube i moje tłumaczenie:
Frankly, for me, a Slavic Polan (yes, “Polan, not quite the same as “Pole”), it’s a breath-taking masterpiece of old Russian Pagan music, in particular, and of Slavic art in general. I took Russian in high school and have done my best to translate the song into both Polish and English. Let me know if any corrections are needed.
Here’s my translation:
Разлилась, разлилась речка быстрая. (The fast river is flooding. Bystra rzeka rozlewa się.)
Белы камушки – это глазки мои. (White pebbles – they’re my eyes. Białe kamyczki to moje oczy.)
Шелковая трава – это волос мой. (The silky grass – that’s my hair. Jedwabna trawa to moje włosy.)
А речная вода – это кровь, моя (The river water – that’s my blood. A woda rzeczna to moja krew.)
Ключевая вода – этa слезы мои. (The spring water, it’s my tears. Woda źródlana to moje łzy.)
And btw: I’d like to re-post your essay on my blog. Do I have your permission?
Hi Kaz, thank you for your comment, and of course you can repost whatever you like!
Hi Ian,
seems highly optimistic
“If, for example, Germans made an actual serious effort to be an independent nation and told all American troops to leave, well, we would.”
I don’t remember a single country where “you” left after someone asked for leaving.
Ask Cuba, ask Iraq, ask Syria … they told quite a lot, go! So far only Vietnam and Afghanistan get rid of the Yanks, but tey did more than just telling to go. The second approach towards Vietnam with Coca&Cola & Co. was more succesful. And Afghanistan got proxy ISIS instead …
Otherwise, highly appreciated.
Hi Ian,
I followed your link from MOA. I agree with what you say here except I’ve an issue with the consensual part.
Australia, my country, see link below, I wonder if the same applies in Europe and is it really consensual or a threat?
https://twitter.com/JayTharappel/status/1314168746269839362?s=20&t=vANq86Ylj-uZwco1k0jR8w
I’d like to know your thoughts.
Thank you.
Hi Deborah,
This gentleman said the quiet part out loud, as the saying goes. He really comes off like a mafia thug shaking down the local grocer for a protection racket. How do Australians feel about this? Are they going to take any meaningful action about it? Unfortunately, Americans, Australians and Europeans are, so far, consenting to these thugs ruling us.
For most of the people who comment about the Ukraine War (or whatever we end up calling it) the war has become a derivative dispute about other things. So they tend to wallow in narrative wars online based on how they fell about the American Empire, or what have you. And they will argue their narratives as if it somehow will make a difference Over There on the ground. You can see it a lot on Twitter, where the old adage that denial ain’t just a river in Egypt is in full effect. The Putin fanboys are in denial that Russia’s war plan miscarried and its military performed badly in the opening phase, and the Zelensky fanboys are in denial about the depth of trouble Ukraine is in and its probable long term prospects.
I believe, as I think you do, that American foreign policy should be made based on national interest. I could not tell you what national interest we are serving in Ukraine if you put a gun to my head. On the other hand, I have no illusions about Putin, nor do I believe that a Russian victory will make the world a better or safer place.
Man Who Laughs,
Good to see you again. American foreign policy, like any foreign policy, should be about our own interests, and that’s a catch 22, I think. I don’t think the vast majority of Americans feel like we have any skin in the game, so there isn’t a personal motivation to end these proxy wars, UNLESS the involved countries start pushing back hard enough that we feel it. As of right now, “those” countries: Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Germany, etc., all seem content to be proxies.
I am half-way through Andrei Martyanov’s “Losing Military Supremacy” and that is precisely one of the book’s theses: the U.S. has never been invaded (the minor British incursions of 1812-1815 don’t count!), and so does not approach war with the gravitas of countries that have suffered greatly fighting on their own soil.
Sadly the only “skin in the game” is what Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and the like have in supplying cannon fodder.
The American Civil War was the deadliest war in our history – and it killed more Americans, both in gross numbers and per capita, than the World Wars (which also shows how small our involvement was in WW). But it wasn’t anywhere close to as devastating as other people’s civil wars, like the 30 Years War, or the Russian Civil War. It was also too long ago. We also have been an all-volunteer military since Nixon. So we simply don’t take war seriously, or realize it can come back in our faces.
Ian,
I also found your site through MOA, and have been reading regularly for about a month. I like your writing and mostly agree with it.
I have to take exception to your statement that the US would leave Germany if asked. That, my friend, is preposterous. The Iraqi’s told us to leave about a decade or so ago, iirc. How’s that working out for them?
The US will not leave any of it’s bases until forced to, period.
Hi David,
Germany and Iraq are not the same. If the Germans ORDERED all American bases closed down and our troops to leave, do you think we would fight a war to stay in Germany? I suppose that’s theoretically possible, I just find it extremely unlikely.
Hello Ian,
Thanks for the reply.
Agreed, they are not the same. I don’t think it would be necessary to fight a war to stay, the US would simply assassinate the leaders who made the decision to kick the US out, and the other leaders would fall in line.
Peace.
David,
It’s entirely possible that you’re right and I’m being overly optimistic.
That’s a great article. I’m glad I found it, and also glad I found your series about why Russia is not losing the information war which mostly echoes my thoughts. Russia is indeed winning the info war where it’s important, at home. For the rest, even if the west is “controlling the narrative” for the western audience, I’d simply paraphrase old uncle Joe : “the narrative, how many divisions ?”
However, even if i do agree with most of what you say, the end of you’re article is simply untrue.
Maybe most Americans don’t care about NATO or the rest of Europe, but if it’s the case, I’m sorry to say it, they’re not very smart.
Many people misunderstand the nature of America’s power. You mostly hear about the juggernaut economy and about the “best military the world has ever seen”. There is some truth in it, but these are clearly not the crucial factors.
The United States are mainly powerful because of their alliance networks (or vassal states), chiefly amongst them, their European alliance network a.k.a NATO.
Without the sprawling alliance and vassals network of your country, you Americans could never live the wasteful credit fueled, over the top life you’re used to. Without that alliance network, of which Europe is the capstone, The United States would be reduced to a backwater (albeit a powerful one), unable to compete significantly with the prospect of a unified Heartland.
Mackinder theory is still very much true, Ismay’s “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down” also.
American decision makers know this very well. The idea that if Germans told American troops to leave their country, they would do it, or that NATO’s disbandment only requires a bit of European people’s agency is, frankly, ridiculous.
America would vitrify Europe before allowing anything like that to happen, because it would assuredly mark the catastrophic end of the American empire.
Indeed, one could quite convincingly argue that the current events in the Ukraine are, once again, a case of “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. It surely did miracles for NATO.
Thanks for your work !
Hi Jean,
The USA’s credit economy I think is widely misunderstood. The influence of the petrodollar and the ability to print/borrow unlimited amounts of currency is an immensely powerful tool, but that does not translate into riches for the average American. Countries that, on paper, are much “poorer” than us, still have higher rates of home ownership, and also healthcare. Bad, bad Russia has universal healthcare. Hell, even Cuba has universal healthcare. We’re a consumerist economy that mindlessly encourages people to buy as much electronic junk as we can afford, and more, but that doesn’t translate into prosperity, let alone happiness. A default would be disastrous and I hope we can afford that, but losing the empire would by no means be a bad thing for us as individual Americans in the heartland. The “homeland” Americans worship the empire and would sacrifice any number of lives for it, but again, that’s not of immediate real-world benefit to us.
This idea that our occupation of Europe isn’t consensual is, to be frank, ridiculous. If there was a critical mass of Germans, French, etc., demanding independence, there are limits to what the USG could do to stop it. Think about what’s worse – potential conflicts with the USA, possibly including assassinations, squabbles between soldiers and local civilians – or doing nothing and allowing the “collective” western governments drag us all over the edge of a cliff into nuclear armageddon? Even if forcing an end to the NATO empire was costly and cost lives, it would be far less than the impending alternative would be.
Hey Ian,
Thanks for your answer.
Don’t misunderstand me, European occupation, alliance, vassalization, however you want to name it, is, of course, mainly consensual. It was setup at the end of WWII, when the United States represented 50% of global GDP and were somewhat afraid of the only model they thought could compete with them, i.e. communist Russia.
The U.S. were mostly clever about it, incentivizing more than strong arming, and they had so much economic power, it was irresistible for most of the destroyed European countries. And then, they set in motion one of their most effective weapon, assimilation through cultural carpet bombing. Geographically and historically, many European countries had far more in common with Russia than with the U.S., for example, but 70 years of cultural hammering have changed that.
Nevertheless, I’m certain that the U.S. would never ever let a major European country escape its grasp. A leader who would try to lead Germany out of NATO and on the path of a pro Chinese realignment (for example), would soon find himself vilified, hitlerified by the whole anglo press, then bullet ridden, and if it doesn’t work (cfr. Fidel Castro), it would be shock and awe for the whole population.
Of course they could do something about it : coups, assassinations, local insurgencies, “color revolutions”, sabotages, even boots on the ground. You just have to look at 19-20-21st century South-American history to understand. Every European knows this (consciously or unconsciously), so they consider themselves lucky to be mostly on the carrot receiving end of the American might, and continue to play ball, partly out of self-interest, partly out of self-induced ignorance, but mostly out of fear.
By the way, I agree that the end of the American empire wouldn’t be, per se, a bad thing for the American people (it would be far more beneficial to the others though), consumerism doesn’t breed happiness, but it would upend the status-quo, and that is always dangerous, and most people don’t like dangerous.
The nearly impregnable geographic position of the United States could make for a peaceful bucolic paradise combined with a great trading power. Sadly, it’s not the way the U.S. has chosen, and I don’t see it ending positively in any way.
Hi Jan.
I read your articles with pleasure. It’s good that there are still people in the West who are not afraid of expressing their position.
Russia is saving no one but itself.
Putin VERY much didn’t want war, for many years he avoided provocations, scared the West with new weapons (Putin’s cartoons), but unfortunately there were no smart ones among Western leaders.
This is the message I try to convey to as many people as humanly possible, Sergey!
I can’t reply to this without a reference to what a paradoxical political system, formal western democracies are:
“We’re all responsible, yet we can’t do anything about it”.
If Russia (or China) were to disrupt the status quo, I would welcome that, even if they don’t intend to liberate me and my personal situation would actually worsen. It’s to my benefit (somewhat), but the current state of world affairs shouldn’t remain unchallenged.
Germany has an occupation force of 35,000 that would spring into action if Scholz was to do the right thing on any issue. An easy 97% of Americans are completely brainwashed or else there is a large minority that does not say anything they really think which does not seem to me plausible. There is no chance the few anti-neocon Americans can do anything. They are too few, and the rest are deranged and unreachable. Try and you will be left wondering what the hell just happened. The U.$. is now clearly so dangerous it must be demilitarized and deNatizified (which is likely impossible or at least quite risky since it has numerous nuclear weapons and numerous ways to deliver them) or the WWIII that started February 2014 will eventually go nuclear.