Ukraine, WWIII and the Myth of Nuclear Deterrence

Negotiations in Ukraine failed. On Feb. 24, the Russians reportedly destroyed around 118 targets. Now, it’s 975. The Biden regime got the bloodbath they wanted. Everyone is treating this like a small regional conflict when it’s not. This is the first salvo of a conflict that could become a world war. A nuclear war.

Regardless of how anyone feels about the Russians invading Ukraine, you need to understand that it cannot be reversed, and dragging this out will not lead to anything good. See, a lot of people seem to have this idea in their heads that the Ruskis can be crushed and they’ll retreat. No, they can’t. Where would they retreat to? They have nowhere to go. If they achieve anything less than total victory in Ukraine, there will be nukes there the next day, and those nukes would be four minutes flight time away from Moscow. Anyone claiming this wouldn’t happen is being dishonest.

To understand why I say this, it is necessary to first understand the two most widely believed myths about nuclear war, and why they’re wrong, and dangerous to believe.

Nuclear weapons are a deterrent that brought peace.

Really? I love how so many people say this and have literally zero evidence for it. Someone invented the atom bomb then immediately used it on people who were already defeated and couldn’t defend themselves. Twice. And yet, the opposite happened in the European theater. In Europe, the nazis western allies had nukes, and the Soviet Union did not. So why didn’t they destroy the Soviet Union then and there instead of starting a grueling cold war for the rest of the century? Because analysts crunched the numbers for Operation Unthinkable and realized that in a fight between the USSR and the West at that moment, the USSR would win. Nukes were an infant technology, they couldn’t be built and dropped by plane in sufficient numbers to change the outcome.

The USSR, without nukes, prevented more killing. America, with nukes, failed to prevent more killing, and actually did the opposite. If nukes were such a great deterrent, then why does pretty much everyone still have a large conventional army? Nuclear weapons did not end the arms race, they doubled it. Before 1945, a nation had to maintain a strong conventional army. Now, a nation has to have a strong nuclear arsenal and a strong conventional army. If she falls behind in either of these categories, rivals take that as a sign of weakness and get more aggressive. So nukes accomplished absolutely nothing good.

Furthermore, the USSR is also not the only example of discouraging a foreign invasion without the benefit of nukes. Look at Iran. The West could not have realistically conquered Iran without provoking the USSR, but what about afterward? Why did Iraq get a “democratic transition” and not Iran? Because Iran is strong enough to deter aggression, even without nukes, but Iraq was not.

World powers can fight each other without resorting to nuclear weapons.

No, they cannot. If two world powers get into a conventional war, sooner or later, one of them is going to lose. Do you think the losing party is going to willingly let themselves be destroyed without firing the nukes? And wait a minute, doesn’t this lesson completely contradict the previous lesson?

Tearjerker stories about old women and ghost pilots fending off hordes of evil Asiatic Russians aren’t meant to make audiences think. Those stories exist to provoke people into blind, irrational rage. It’s funny how George Orwell’s 1984 is compulsory reading basically everywhere in the Western world and has been for generations, but we’re incapable of noticing how closely it applies to us, and in extremely obvious ways. He described “two minutes of hate,” where people would watch propaganda videos of their enemies being killed in extremely violent, brutal deaths by airpower, throwing everyone into euphoric rage. Yet we’re somehow worse than Orwell’s literary world. We’ve turned two minutes of hate into 24/7 of hate.

I blame this on Tom Clancy. I wish he was aborted and never existed. I’m not saying he was a bad author, I’m just glad he’s dead. He captured the imaginations of American readers with his fanciful war stories of the Cold War, and taught horrible lessons. His stories about defeating the Soviet Union, like his best seller Red Rabbit was widely praised for depicting a “realistic” non-nuclear war with the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union accepts a humiliating defeat and all of the world’s borders return to their pre-war status.

This idea of quo ante bellum, the situation as it existed before the war, is not possible. Weaponized hysteria and can’t be reversed with a flip of a switch. The media has been talking about Ukraine and almost nothing else for three days. Even if the Biden regime wanted to stop nuclear proliferation, they wouldn’t be able to. The peoples of the collective West would demand nukes for Ukraine. Yes, logically, a case of Ukraine fending off an attack would be pretty compelling evidence that they don’t need nukes, but we all know that logic isn’t even on the table right now.

So this is going to continue, and the Russians, whatever you think of them, have to accept nothing less than total victory. There cannot even be the slightest doubt in anyone’s minds that Russia came out on top. A show of force is an effective way to get NATO to back off, but if it fails, then the opposite will happen. After the things I’ve seen on social media in the past 24 hours, I’m honestly not sure the Russians would even survive failing here.

Now, about the Ukrainians. Yesterday, CBS reporter Charlie D’Agata participated in a segment about the West accepting Ukrainian refugees. He accidentally said the quiet part out loud.

This isn’t a place, with all due respect, like Iraq or Afghanistan that has seen conflict raging for decades… This is a relatively civilised, relatively European – I have to choose those words carefully too – city, where you wouldn’t expect that or hope that it’s going to happen

Those are the words he “chose carefully.” Jesus, imagine what he might have said if he didn’t choose his words carefully! Dear Ukrainians, this is what western elites actually think of you. All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others. The West does not consider you the equals of Anglos and Aryans, and never will, no matter how much you try to be a good and faithful ally.

Ukraine Donbass Russian invasion

Image Source: Donetsk News Agency

Ian Kummer

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