On February 3, Martin van Creveld, internationally famous Israeli military theorist, predicted a Russian invasion. How is that prediction working out?
Whether or not Vladimir (“World-Owner,” according to one translation) Putin is going to march on Kiev I do not know. However, it seems to me that, having invested so much in making ready for such an invasion—propaganda, money, political capital, and all kinds of military moves—he cannot now simply order a retreat without having achieved anything. Even at best, such a retreat would deal a grievous blow to his prestige and his future ability to get anything out of anybody. At worst it might lead to his removal from office and, since Russia is not and never has been a democracy, a political shakeup. One whose consequences, first for Russia and then for large parts of the rest of the world, could be incalculable.
“The Master and Kiev” by Martin van Creveld
If Russia is not a democracy and Putin is a dictator, why would it matter to him what people think? Hypothetically, if Russia was a democracy (which it’s not of course), Putin has consistently had a higher approval rating than any Western leader. Putin is actually in the unique position of being more popular among American Republicans than Joe Biden. Russia just had an election last September and United Russia has a constitutional majority, making a coalition with other parties unnecessary. Yes, yes, Russia is a dictatorship and all elections are rigged, but you do realize you can’t have it both ways, right? Putin rules half the world with an iron fist, or he’s politically weak. You can’t believe both of these things simultaneously. Which is it?
Why would not invading Ukraine cause Putin to lose power, anyway? Would a boyer in Putin’s royal court be offended by his display of cowardice and challenge him to a duel? This isn’t the 11th Century.
Not only is Mr. Creveld wrong, I would go so far as to say the exact opposite might be true. The Biden regime (yes, it is a regime so let’s start calling it that) is gambling everything on the idea of an “imminent” Russian attack. If that doesn’t happen, Biden and all of his cronies are going to look incredibly stupid.
That said, I would be interested in the propaganda Mr. Creveld is referring to. All I’ve seen from the news is Western news outlets insisting that Russia is about to invade, and Russians denying it. An article from CNN appears to answer this question:
Officers with Russia’s domestic and foreign intelligence agencies, the FSB and SVR, have covertly planted articles in publications that blame the West for tensions with Russia over Ukraine, question the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and challenge the US commitment to its European allies, US officials alleged.
Ah, okay. Interesting how it’s phrased as “US officials alleged” – but why alleged? If there is Russian propaganda promoting a war against Ukraine… well, where is it? Are there propaganda videos? Blog posts? News articles? Something? I follow RT, TASS, RIA, Margarita Simonyan (chief editor of RT), Maria Zacharova (MFA spokesperson), and a few other sources (and I’m fairly confident that Mr. Creveld does not do this)… so, where’s the pro-war chatter?
He went on to say:
Such being the case, in this post I shall assume that an invasion is being planned and, unless the West makes some important concessions, will be carried out. Sooner rather than later, and perhaps under the guise of a response to some Ukrainian “provocation.” What might such an invasion look like? The obvious starting point would be the Donbas, a Ukrainian province now under the rule two different self-proclaimed pro-Russian governments. It has everything an invader could wish for: agriculture, industry, minerals (coal), and the kind of flat terrain that used to be occupied by the Cossacks and now offers few serious obstacles to a modern mechanized army.
I assume by “provocation” he is referring to statements by Ned Price from the Department of State made on Feb. 3 that Russia is planning to hire crisis actors to make a “gory” staged video. Price’s evidence for this was literally source: trust me, bro. Matthew Lee from the Associated Press was not thrilled with this answer and had a heated exchange with Price over it. This might just be the cringiest conversation I have seen in ages:
Matthew Lee: “Crisis actors? Really? This is like Alex Jones territory you’re getting into now. What evidence do you have to support the idea that there is some propaganda film in the making?”
Ned Price: “Matt, this is derived from information known to the U.S. government, intelligence information that we have declassified. I think you know —
Matthew Lee: “OK, well, where is it? Where is this information?”
Ned Price: “It is intelligence information that we have declassified.”
Matthew Lee: “Well, where is it? Where is the declassified information?
Ned Price: “I just delivered it.”
Beautiful. It’s true because I said so! To be fair, I do understand that it is often not possible to go into specifics, because doing so could tip off an adversary on how that information was gathered. But Price was completely unprepared to even answer this question, which shows how conditioned Price is to delivering total bullshit without ever being challenged on any of it.
Now I am genuinely worried about this propaganda about Russian crisis videos and false flag attacks. The Biden regime might be desperate enough for a “provocation” that they’re willing to commit one themselves. Would Biden commit an act of terrorism in Donbass and then blame the Russians for it? I don’t think that’s likely, but anything is possible. This is the president who murdered one of our own allies and his entire family in Kabul, and as far as I can tell, the only reason he did it was to generate some positive headlines after his disastrous botched withdrawal. Ten people killed, including seven children. In that case, the “terrorist” was actually a former ISAF interpreter loading water into his car. The Pentagon investigated themselves and punished no one.
This wasn’t some random semi-nomadic village out in the desert, it was in Kabul. What am I supposed to believe? That the Air Force saw a guy loading something into his trunk and dropped a missile on his head without even looking up the address to see who lived there? One would think that’s an incredibly basic step to check if he was on a watch list, or at the very least not one of our own people. That’s either extreme incompetence, or a pre-planned political hit. While I suspect the latter, I can’t rule out incompetence. But that makes this worse, not better. If Biden was willing to authorize that, what else is he willing to do?
What if Biden orchestrates the murder of civilians in Donbass? What if he kills ten? Or a hundred? Or a thousand? Biden murdering people in Donbass would probably provoke Russian intervention if the body count was high enough. If Biden is preparing to commit mass murder, then all of his actions up to now make a lot of sense. With diplomats, military advisers, and OSCE staff evacuated from Ukraine, that means no witnesses, or at least witnesses who matter to the Biden regime. There are no journalists from mainstream Western outlets in Donbass, Russian news outlets are all “propaganda” and can be dismissed, and the American public has already been prepped (brainwashed) to expect a Russian false flag attack with “crisis actors.”
Hopefully that’s not the case. Hopefully this is a farce and it’ll soon be over.
Tankers of a motorized rifle formation of the combined arms formation of the Central Military District, attacking on the move, defeated the manpower and equipment of a mock enemy during a night exercise at the Yurginsky training ground in the Kemerovo region (Russian Ministry of Defense).
Ian Kummer
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