Trump is not ruining the system, he is a product of the system. And saying “average president” here is like standing in a sinking boat and saying there has only been an average of one inch of water on the floor for the past 10 years. Trump is particularly unpopular because a fairly large percentage of the opposing voters protested the election due to the Gaza genocide – 29% of Democrat non-voters identified Kamala Harris’s support for Israel as the main motivation for not supporting her. So Trump got a sweeping victory in the electoral college not because he was popular, but because his opposition was more divided than usual. Just because someone deliberately sabotaged Harris for supporting genocide doesn’t mean that person likes Trump, or will poll in favor of Trump.
But aside from the Gaza question, the USA is deeply polarized to an extent that should terrify any person with a two digit or higher IQ. Consider this county map of Illinois in the 2020 and 2024 elections.
70% to 90% of all rural people in Illinois supported Trump both times, and urban people supported Biden/Harris to about the same degree. Of course the urban people outnumbered the rural people so Democrats carried the state, but this is not a divide that can work in the long term. American electoral maps resemble 2012 Ukraine, late Yugoslavia (if they had direct elections), and the USA itself in the 1850s.
A president who is overwhelmingly supported by one side of the country but deeply hated by the other does not have real legitimacy. Anything that president does regardless of his intentions will be interpreted as an attack by the population that hates him. Eventually there will be civil war, and there is probably no other possible outcome.
The additional problem that makes this situation worse is that there isn’t even a clean regional split between Democrats and Republicans like there was between Ukrainian nationalists and Russians in pre-Maidan Ukraine, or yanks and rebs in 1860 USA. A civil war now would likely be a chaotic nationwide bloodbath, of the superior 80% in every county killing or chasing out the traitorous 20%. That’s 50 or 60 million people killed or displaced all at once and rule of law breaking down into vigilante justice everywhere in every state without even one exception.
As for why this might happen in the future but not already is pretty simple, and alarming. The Dollar is strong and the Federal government can hold society with some bandaids, like EBT welfare to urban and suburban populations, and subsidies to farmers (farm subsidies are basically welfare for rednecks if you think about it). The money keeps these various groups from tearing each other’s throats out. If, or when, the money runs out, what will stop the blood bath then?
Ian Kummer
I now have a new YouTube channel that I will use to upload videos from my travels around Russia. Expect new content there soon. Please give me a follow here.
Also feel free to connect with me on Quora (I sometimes share unique articles there).
On the substance of the post, you are right that a civil war in America will look like how the Rwanda war went down, with people on one block or subdivision getting together and taking out the one household there that doesn’t fit it.
However, I think a civil war in America will go global pretty quickly.
You reminded your Quora readers that you have a blog, and again I encourage you to keep cross-posting. Posts here are more easily linkable in other spaces, and Quora has a problem in that it is a ghetto confined to Google users. I’ve found people who post there to be pretty intelligent on the whole, so its more like a college town than a slum, but its still a ghetto walled off from the rest of the internet.
Hey Ed, thank you very much. I’m trying to post at least close to daily here. The multi-week ban on Quora taught me that, unfortunatey, I don’t control any platform except my own.
On the substance of the post, you are right that a civil war in America will look like how the Rwanda war went down, with people on one block or subdivision getting together and taking out the one household there that doesn't fit it. However, I think a civil war in America will go global pretty quickly. You reminded your Quora readers that you have a blog, and again I encourage you to keep cross-posting. Posts here are more easily linkable in other spaces, and Quora has a problem in that it is a ghetto confined to Google users. I've found people who post there to be pretty intelligent on the whole, so its more like a college town than a slum, but its still a ghetto walled off from the rest of the internet.
I don’t think it’s gonna go down like that. The material basis of the city is the countryside and at the same time is surrounded by it. It would be foolish for the libs to pick a fight if they can’t even feed themselves, but then again they picked a fight against the whole world.
You’re assuming that people going to war, especially civil war, are entirely rational, which I don’t think is true. The Southern gentry in Gone With the Wind were quite eager to stick it to the northern yanks, and were sure it would be over by Christmas. Gable’s character politely reminded them that they didn’t have the guns or industry to win a war, but his advice fell on deaf ears.
I also don’t think the odds are as stacked against the diverse liberal urbanites as popular wisdom insists. The mostly white rural guys tend to wildly overestimate their self sufficiency versus the “demonrat commie thug libtards” in much the same way as the 1860s southerners. The homestead is doing okay NOW while they can go to Walmart three times a week but what if they couldn’t? Modern farms need seed, fertilizer, fuel and replacement parts for machinery. How much of American farmland is even water independent? And most wild game would go extinct after a year of heavy hunting – there are only about 35 million deer in North America for example, versus 60+ million rural people in the USA alone.
Meanwhile the cities are by ports and major transportation hubs so would probably do okay, as they could continue importing food and international relief shipments. Some small town 50 miles from the city limits would be last in line for food. Remember the tsar abdicated because Petrograd and Moscow were running out of bread. The peasants had already been starving for years, but the situation had to get extraordinarily bad before the two largest cities were in trouble.
I don't think it's gonna go down like that. The material basis of the city is the countryside and at the same time is surrounded by it. It would be foolish for the libs to pick a fight if they can't even feed themselves, but then again they picked a fight against the whole world.
You're assuming that people going to war, especially civil war, are entirely rational, which I don't think is true. The Southern gentry in Gone With the Wind were quite eager to stick it to the northern yanks, and were sure it would be over by Christmas. Gable's character politely reminded them that they didn't have the guns or industry to win a war, but his advice fell on deaf ears. I also don't think the odds are as stacked against the diverse liberal urbanites as popular wisdom insists. The mostly white rural guys tend to wildly overestimate their self sufficiency versus the "demonrat commie thug libtards" in much the same way as the 1860s southerners. The homestead is doing okay NOW while they can go to Walmart three times a week but what if they couldn't? Modern farms need seed, fertilizer, fuel and replacement parts for machinery. How much of American farmland is even water independent? And most wild game would go extinct after a year of heavy hunting – there are only about 35 million deer in North America for example, versus 60+ million rural people in the USA alone. Meanwhile the cities are by ports and major transportation hubs so would probably do okay, as they could continue importing food and international relief shipments. Some small town 50 miles from the city limits would be last in line for food. Remember the tsar abdicated because Petrograd and Moscow were running out of bread. The peasants had already been starving for years, but the situation had to get extraordinarily bad before the two largest cities were in trouble.
Hey Ed, thank you very much. I'm trying to post at least close to daily here. The multi-week ban on Quora taught me that, unfortunatey, I don't control any platform except my own.