On Day 29 of the 3 day Special Combat Operation, let’s see how things are going.
First, the stated (positive) objectives, things the USA aimed to achieve:
-Topple and Balkanize Iran
-Eliminate their long-range missile stockpile and production capability
-Eliminate their nuclear program
So far, none of these have been a success. Now for the presumed “negative” objectives, or things the USA wanted to prevent from happening:
-Destruction of Israel’s infrastructure
-Destruction of US regional assets
-Keep the Strait of Hormuz open!
All three of these have also been failures, particularly keeping the strait open. US analysts seem to have underestimated Iran in every capacity. They did not anticipate Iran being able to strike US and Israeli infrastructure to the extent they have so far (despite being shown a clue in the 12 Day War). They also, oddly enough, wildly misunderstood how Iran would go about blocking the strait. This idea was always presented to us westerners as Iran blocking all traffic, but this isn’t what happened. They only blocked enemy traffic, allowing their own friendly and allied shipping to pass. A bit obvious in hindsight, eh?
What’s even more unforgivable about this debacle is how the last four years in Ukraine have given us a perfect example of what a modern war would look like, but every lesson seems to have been totally ignored. Russian difficulties in breaking Ukraine’s military industrial complex, rather than a solemn warning to the Americans, was perceived as proof that Russians are stupid and subhuman. Ukrainians’ failure to break through Russian positions, despite having full access to western weapons and intelligence, was likewise perceived as Ukrainians being stupid subhumans. So the lessons from both sides were dismissed as irrelevant to the mighty superhuman NATO forces.
Now let’s consider losses. There is, as of right now, no openly admitted US ground operations against Iran, so there is no comparison to Russian ground attacks against Ukraine. But we can compare aircraft losses. According to pro-Ukrainian sources, Russia lost 181 aircraft destroyed or damaged as of the end of February 2026. The US as of today has lost 20 aircraft to Iran. Of course that’s a much lower figure compared to Russian losses, but the rate of loss is far higher. That’s an average loss of one airframe every 36 hours. If nothing changes and the war doesn’t end, US aircraft losses would exceed Russia’s in nine to ten months.
Oh and we can’t leave out the territorial change that NAFO bloggers love to go on about. Well, all of the USA’s 13 bases in the Middle East have been evacuated except for air crews and a minimum of essential support personnel, and there has been a complete withdrawal from Iraq. Remember that the US spent $6 trillion and tens of thousands of casualties to access to Iraqi territory and airspace. Now in the course of less than a month, that’s gone. Iraq, which was once Iran’s most bitter enemy, is now a satellite state fully onboard with the mutual war against Israel and their western backers.
The irony of the situation is that the US faces a lot of the same problems as Russia, and is responding to them the same way, but less competently. Like Russia was generally unwilling to acknowledge Ukrainian air defense successes or admit losses of valuable assets, the US is unwilling to admit losses inflicted by Iran. American planes and ships crash on their own or shoot themselves, that’s apparently better than admitting that Iran did it.
America’s legendary ability to achieve complete air supremacy has so far not materialized. I have seen no compelling evidence that US and Israeli planes operate deep in Iranian airspace, despite their claims to have done so. Like Russia, they’ve used stand-off weapons at a distance where Iranian air defenses pose less of a threat (but still score hits once in a while, apparently). But unlike Russia, the bulk of NATO’s inventory is based on the assumption of air supremacy. As long-range munitions run out, US air forces will lave to lean more heavily into JDAMs, which have very limited range. Too bad they didn’t copy the Russians’ jet-assisted FABs with a range of up to 200km.
Things might suddenly get better for the US, but so far it’s not looking good.
Ian Kummer
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