Is Trump Building a New World Order On American Energy?

In today’s podcast Billy Bob and I are going to argue about the theory voiced by analyst Brian Berletic that Trump’s USA is waging war on Iran to muscle in on the East Asian energy market.

Billy Bob’s perspective:

It is important to understand how the oligarchs plan their wars in advance in accordance with their monopoly business interests. The logistics for creating a US LNG distribution network to Europe including the building of huge LNG Tankers, was conducted at a time when no one could have conceived of a European market for US LNG, unless they somehow new that in several years a war would break out.

The same thing is true of Asia. The US began developing a distribution network to Asia, long before war broke out. While the energy export infrastructure to Asian markets was being created, there was no way in hell that expensive US energy could replace abundant and cheap energy from the middle East. Again, the planners if these projects either got very lucky, they were clairvoyant, or, they new that a war was soon going to break out which would allow all of their expensive investment in infrastructure, to pay off.

Liberals who ignore the reality of class can’t possibly hope to understand anything. It is only through appreciating class interests can one make sense of the world.

Watch Brian Berletic make the point here at the 18:30 minute mark (you should actually watch the whole thing).

My take is that this is far too flattering to the US establishment, especially Trump. I also find the idea that the global economic pressure exerted by the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will translate into US prosperity to be specious at best. Chad Zamarin, CEO of the American natural gas company Williams Companies, recently stated that the US provides 40% of the world’s LNG, but only 3% of the world’s liquid fuel. And for further context, the US produces 110 billion cubic feet of LNG per day, and consumes 80.

There are two further problems with Berletic’s assertion. Firstly, as Zamarin pointed out in his own comments, the US is a global price taker, not price setter. Everybody seems to have memory-holed the anti-Russian sanctions that effectively cornered the European market for American LNG… until the Biden administration paused LNG exports to stabilize local energy prices. Trump reversed this pause on Day 1 of his presidency, but it is unclear if this decision was based on facts and not the compulsive need to do the opposite of whatever Democrats did. Remember that Russia routinely restricts energy exports every year for the same reason, to keep local prices low.

A second problem with Berletic’s prediction is that while higher prices might benefit American energy companies, they hurt everyone else, including in the USA’s own economy. A survey published last month reported that 70% of American farmers cannot afford the required fertilizer, so will plant less crops this year. This was directly attributed to rising energy costs. Does harming the US economy and forcing the consumer to pay more at the pump increase American supremacy, or decrease it? The even bigger risk is that of demand destruction, when companies that need energy simply close down, and removed from play even if oil prices reverted to normal tomorrow.

Every American partner in the world except Israel is probably questioning the wisdom of this affiliation. I think the whole idea of the USA taking a “captive market” falls apart immediately, because obviously other countries are not happy about being forced to buy American energy at high spot prices, and will distance themselves from it at the first opportunity. This bullying might be more tolerable if it wasn’t also accompanied by astonishing weakness; the US military completely failed to defeat a non-nuclear power a quarter its size in population and geography.

Tune in to my podcast with Billy Bob on May 1, 7 p.m. Moscow time, to hear the latest on Trump’s “Special Combat Operation” in Iran. The show starts tonight at 7 p.m. and can be viewed below. You can also subscribe to my YouTube channel for notifications of future videos and interviews. Blowback: Exposing Imperial Decline can be followed here. The stream will also go to Billy Bob’s Facebook page, which you can follow here.