Here’s a summary of yesterday’s podcast with Billy Bob and Ben Toth.
I think Biden will not be replaced and the plan is to have him run and serve a full second term. His status as a mental vegetable makes him an asset, not a liability. The US system today much resembles the Holy Roman Empire. German princes elected an emperor, but they didn’t want a strong emperor. They wanted a weak emperor who wouldn’t reign in their local dominions.
Trump is likely to sweep away all opposition in the Republican primaries, but the party establishment hates him for the same reason Biden is loved. Any idea that needs the president’s stamp of approval requires convincing him. Furthermore, Trump is a bit of an egomaniac who takes personal credit for everything whether or not he did anything besides sign the bottom of the approval form. For a petty person (cough Antony Blinken, cough) in the bureaucracy whose entire existence revolves on little victories in the office, Trump would be the worst boss imagineable.
I don’t think conspiracy theories about Lloyd Austin being injured in Ukraine are true. There must be discreet lines of communication there like in Syria. VIP visits are known to both sides. A senior person like a government minister being killed would be a diplomatic disaster for everyone.
Concerning the Taiwanese election, I don’t consider it important. It is unlikely there will be any serious escalation unless the USA abandons the One China policy. Unlike Russia, I just don’t think American elites see China as an existential enemy that has to be destroyed.
Ian Kummer
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American Elites may not want war with China, but IMO their Atlanticist bosses do.
I wish there was a way to upvote comments that are spot on like this one.