Second Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive Has Begun

I have some updates for you from the Zaporozhye, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and Belgorod directions.

This is the second round of Ukrainian attacks so far. The first round, which started 4 June, apparently failed. According to TASS:

On June 4, two Ukrainian mechanized brigades tried to advance in five directions, but “the enemy did not succeed in any of them” and “sustained significant losses:” 300 men, 16 tanks and 26 armored fighting vehicles, and 14 trucks.

On June 5, Kiev put five brigades into action in seven directions, but was stopped and sustained even heavier losses: more than 1,600 men and 28 tanks, including eight Leopard tanks and three AMX-10 wheeled tanks, as well as 136 other pieces of combat equipment, mostly of foreign make.

“The enemy did not achieve its objectives and suffered significant and incomparable losses.”

Russian troops displayed courage and heroism in repelling the Ukrainian offensive: “The units of the 433rd Mechanized Infantry Regiment of the 127th Mechanized Infantry Division, and the 37th and 60th mechanized infantry brigades distinguished themselves in combat, showing great stamina and fortitude.”

During the three days of combat operations in all directions Ukraine lost up to 3,715 men, 52 tanks and 207 armored combat vehicles, 134 trucks, 48 field artillery guns, as well as five aircraft, two helicopters and 53 drones.

Russia’s losses were immeasurably smaller: “Altogether 71 servicemen of the combined group of forces were killed and 210 others wounded while repulsing the enemy offensive. Fifteen tanks, nine infantry fighting vehicles, two trucks and nine guns were taken out.”

This was a bad sign for Ukraine, losing 3,700 men in exchange for less than 300 Russian casualties would be a disastrous casualty ratio if true. Even if you’re not inclined to believe “Russian propaganda,” western media outlets are being weirdly quiet about the offensive, focusing all their energy into blaming Russia for the Kakhova dam disaster (Russians deliberately bomb themselves to make us look bad, again).

Over the past year or so, Russia has improved its surveillance satellite network, closing crucial gaps which NATO-directed Ukrainian troops could exploit to move their vehicles without being observed. Supposedly, those gaps have been fixed. However, I think the biggest factor at play here is that the Ukrainians have long lost their numerical superiority, and are trying to attack strong defensive positions without nearly enough fire support.

The “window” for attacks like this is about 72 hours. Meaning, according to conventional wisdom, infantry and vehicle crews typically need to pause operations after the first 72 hours, because even a trained soldier is too tired to continue after 3 straight days of combat. Apparently, this is exactly the time frame NATO/Ukraine used for planning these offensives, as the first wave started on 4 June, and the second wave on 8 June. If the first wave had been successful, they would have reached their limit of advance (LOA) last night.

And now, apparently, attacks have begun again – this time in the Zaporozhye direction. This time, in contrast with last year’s fall offensives, Ukrainian armored columns attacked at night. Attacking minefields at night is a bold strategy, to say the least. From Donbass Devushka on Telegram:

A number of TG channels and Russian military correspondents report a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Orekhovsky section of the Zaporozhye direction .

They write that there is an intense battle , columns of armored vehicles and tanks are supported by artillery. Aviation is also working on the Russian side.

Vladimir Rogov, a member of the council of the administration of the Zaporozhye region, announced a strike from HIMARS on Tokmak.

“The AFU offensive in the Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/67804) has resumed. The first failure of the Ukrainian troops did not stop.”

By the way, the AFU is also attacking near Bakhmut, there is also a battle, and damage has also been inflicted on the enemy, now the Ukrainians are fleeing.

In the Bakhmut direction, in the area of the Berdovsky reservoir, the enemy has failed and suffered heavy losses. Now our artillery is hitting the retreating AFU groups.” – war correspondent Aleksander Sladkov

Heavy battles are going on: the first wave of the offensive on the Zaporozhye Front was repelled, but AFU began the second.

▪️The first powerful night attack of the AFU was repulsed by the coordinated and competent actions of the Russian troops around 04:00(Moscow time)

▪️After several hours of battle, the attackers rolled back, but then a new wave began.

▪️AFU armored groups are hitting one point near the town of Orekhiv in the Rabotino area and are trying to break through Russia’s defenses.

▪️Russian tanks went into battle, supporting the infantry. Artillery works powerfully: howitzers and MLRS hit from both sides.

▪️Heavy fighting is already at Russian positions,AFU has an advance at the same height – 178.2, AFU is trying to build on success by throwing new forces there.

Remember my last Ukraine story when I said:

With that principle in mind, I strongly believe we will see the Ukrainian offensive take place along two axes, because that’s what happened last time. One offensive will likely be roughly in the Mariupol direction in the South, because there’s a matching Ukrainian troop concentration, increased activity, and an attack in that direction would threaten Russia’s overland link with Crimea.

The Ukrainian Offensive: “Team Z” is setting themselves up for failure (again)

In that story I cited the YouTuber HistoryLegends, compare his map to the map of the reported Ukrainian attacks:

HistoryLegends was pretty close to on the mark, so far.

There is also news of intense fighting in the Artemovsk direction, and acts of terrorism (and possible hostages) in Belgorod.

The Soloviev channel shared some pictures, including imagery of what appear to be destroyed Leopoard II tanks.

As always, keep a cool head and understand how tentative information is, especially at first.

Please see my update below:

The Ukrainians are marching on Moscow

Ian Kummer

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