According to Kiev, their great spring/summer/fall/winter offensive is “imminent.” Meanwhile, the “pro-Russia” commentators are chortling and dismissing the idea of a Ukrainian offensive… just like they did last time. I think not only are we in for another Ukrainian offensive, we’re in for another hysterical cycle of western bloggers doing their usual cycle of getting hysterical, demanding Putin “take the gloves off,” and panicking in general principle. Today I’ll go over what I’ve seen so far, the steps we can roughly expect from both sides. I consider the liberation of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) as the distinctive end of one phase of the conflict and the beginning of a new one.